Five Challenges the next Secretary of Defense Will Face
By Terry Lloyd

Secretary Gates has announced he will leave government sometime this year. History will pass judgment on his performance … but … he has left some very large issues unaddressed. In my judgment, these are the top five.

Defense Spending. There has not been a national consensus on the level of defense spending in this country. Most don’t know that the base defense budget – that part of the budget absent war costs – is at an almost all-time low. The FY11 budget request was 3.5% of GDP. President Obama has identified defense spending as the main target of any budget reductions, stating we need to cut the budget by $400B over 12 years. The new SECDEF will face calls in the White House and OMB for new rounds of cuts – this when we have never in history cut defense spending during wartime. It will take a strong person to convince the nation and the Administration that, as Reagan so famously said: “No war in my lifetime has come about because the US is too strong.”

Iraq/Afghanistan. The US presence in Iraq is due to end in November. For Afghanistan, some level of presence will continue through 2014. Managing the draw-downs … gracefully … will be a tough challenge. The nation has been at war for the past ten years. We have to be willing to take off the training wheels and let the leaders in both countries try to succeed. We also need to provide them the tools to maintain internal and external security. Finally, should they begin to wobble and need our help, we should be prepared to go back in to help them succeed. Success in these drawdowns will go a long way to saving money in the defense budget. Presently it costs $1M per troop/year in Afghanistan – which amounts to $100B per year. We should have the vision, as the troops leave, to reduce the size of our ground forces, saving even more.

Stalemate in Libya. NATO faces a stalemate in Libya. With a mission that is not a consensus mission agreed to by all the allies, it will be tough to change. What is evident to most is that stalemate is the worst outcome. Either we should have the courage to force a change in the Qaddaffi regime or we should walk away. A new SECDEF will bring a fresh look at Libya and should urge a reconsideration by the Administration.

Balance in the Defense Posture. Sec Gates has argued for more balance in the defense structure. What he meant by that is more focus on counter-insurgency fighting. What he has done is to mortgage the future in favor of the present. He has not purchased the requisite capital equipment for either the Air Force or the Navy to posture them for the future. Air and Sea fleet ages are steadily climbing; replacement programs have been pared back and in some cases, gutted. DOD desperately needs to recapitalize and reconfigure its forces. A long term procurement program needs to be put in place or our forces will be perfectly configured for the last war … not the threats we will face in the future.

Overhead Structure in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). Sec Gates, in a trumpeted announcement last month, touted the efficiencies he has implemented in the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines. The number of generals and admirals, redundant headquarters, and overhead were all reduced. What was striking was the lack of such efficiencies made in his own staff. Presently the number of Senior Executive Service people in OSD and the agencies is three times the number in the Air Force. The size of the OSD staff has almost doubled since 1980. And if DOD overhead were a country, it would be the 49th largest country in the world. As hard as it might be to do, a new SEDEF must look at those closest to him to reduce.

Finally, perhaps the largest challenge for a new SECDEF will be to keep a laser-like focus on national security and avoid the politics that will inevitably occur as we approach 2012. Between now and 2012, there will be lots of posturing, plenty of dumb ideas, and a plethora of one-liners which don’t tell the whole story. The new SECDEF must keep his attention focused on deterring threats, on our three current engagements and on setting us up for the future. He should avoid the political “games” that will occur. The nation and the American people deserve the very best Secretary of Defense the nation can provide … and so do our troops.

Contact the Author at Talloyd01@embarqmail.com