Foundation Forum
General John G. Lorber
Commander, Pacific Air Forces
Presented to the Air Force Association
PACAF IN ASIA-PACIFIC -- THE THREAT AND
THE FUTURE
Thank you for that introduction. I am probably one of the few people
who didn't look forward to coming down here to Orlando to get a little
warm. I appreciate the opportunity to talk to you about my command,
PACAF, and also about the Asia-Pacific area.
Because I believe this region of the world will undoubtedly become
the economic, political, and probably most likely the military center of
attention in the next century -- and having spent 12 years of my career
there -- I've developed some understandings of the problems and issues.
I tell you I am not foolish enough to claim to be an expert -- the
region is much too complex for that. Anyone claiming to be an expert had
better be ready for some surprises. Those of you looking at Asia-Pacific
and view in your mind's eye rickshaws and mud roads will be surprised
when you go over there. When you look left or right, depending on which
country, you probably won't be hit by a rickshaw, but you might be hit
by a Mercedes.
The energy and growth in this region has been phenomenal. The U.S.
military has played a critical role in ensuring the stability of the
growth and energy. We have brought security and stability to an area
that historically has been at war. For example, during the first half of
the last 57 years, the Asia-Pacific basin has been affected by war --
World War II, Korean War and the war in Vietnam. A hundred thousand
Americans gave their lives in these wars. With the end of the Vietnam
War, we did not disengage, we did not demobilize as was our normal trend
in past wars. We stayed in the region with heavy bases -- bases that
ranged from the Philippine Islands to Japan. With our presence has come
peace and stability. With peace and stability has come unparalleled
prosperity. For this prosperity to continue, it will remain important
that the U.S. and Pacific Air Forces stay engaged in the Asia-Pacific
well into the 21st Century.
Today I'd like to discuss some of the challenges and opportunities
that lie ahead of us. Recently, I flew to Korea to attend the 7th
Aerospace Symposium being held at Seoul. I could see in my mind's eye
the deprivation and starvation that was occurring up in North Korea. At
the same time, I could see the vibrant lives of the South Koreans and
the growth that has occurred in their economy. These extreme contrasts,
marked by this thin political line called the DMZ [Demilitarized Zone],
illustrate in many ways the contrasting elements that come together in
the Asia-Pacific area. Asia-Pacific is the point of political and
cultural convergence, and also, perhaps most importantly, of economic
interest.
PACAF's area of responsibilities, which mirrors PACOM's [Pacific
Command], encompasses some 100 million square miles and 60 percent of
the world's population. The people of the region are spread throughout
more than 40 countries and speak more than 1000 languages and dialects.
These languages and dialects themselves are a challenge for many who are
cultured in different languages. Even trying to find someone's golf
handicap can sometimes be a challenge [laughter]. I spent a weekend in
Indonesia and spoke to the air chiefs and air staff down there about our
role in the Pacific. We use a term which has been used throughout
history -- to be an "honest broker." After our meetings and
during dinner, the air chief looked at me and said, "I think we
have a little bit of problem in one of your words used in your
presentation." He speaks very good English so he understood. Let me
tell you, he said, "honest broker" in Indonese, translates to
"clever crook." There are probably other words out there we
are using that, as Ken Minihan was talking about -- the exchange of
thoughts and information that do not convey the right message.
In the Asia-Pacific basin we find vestiges of the Cold War in staunch
Communist North Korea as well as contrasting economic leadership in
countries like Japan, just 500 miles to the east. And there are hot
spots. Seven of the world's largest armies are entrenched in
Asia-Pacific, and weapons of mass destruction deployed there are ever
increasing. As one senior regional leader told me, this is a tough
neighborhood. If Asia-Pacific is a tough neighborhood, it is also a very
promising one.
As an example, Indonesia's economy has grown as much in one
generation as America's has in the last hundred years. Japan now has the
world's second largest economy, and China is not far behind. For those
of you who were stationed at Clark AB [Philippines], I am proud to
announce that the Republic of the Philippines, under the leadership of
President Ramos, is making progress. Clark has recovered from the Mount
Pinatubo eruption and it is an industrial center that has vibrancy.
Also, when you go into Clark AB, you see people smiling.
The Asia-Pacific region is the largest consumer market in the world,
and we, the world's largest trading nation, must be poised to
participate in this extraordinary economic growth. Failure to
participate in Asia-Pacific affairs could have a most negative impact on
future generations of Americans. As President Clinton has stated,
"We have a shared destiny with the Asia-Pacific region, a genuine
partnership for greater security, freedom and prosperity." So, as
we get ready to step into the new century, the Asia-Pacific region
presents us with not only the greatest peril, but also with the most
promise. The fault line laid by the Cold War is starting to disappear.
But I warn you. As this fault line continues to fade, economic
success creates divisive forces. The need for raw materials and access
to markets breeds competition. And, unfortunately, competition often
breeds conflict. As in the case of China and Japan, competition is also
complicated by historic animosities and conflicting territorial claims.
Tie this in with recurring natural disasters and you have an environment
ripe with tension.
The nations of the region look to the United States for help and
support in dealing with these challenges. But the question they all
raise, and they raise it every time I visit, is whether we will be there
when needed. It boils down to a simple matter of trust. Can they be
confident that we will continue to be engaged in the Asia-Pacific
affairs for the duration? If not, their need for self-protection takes
on a new dimension.
In the Asia-Pacific region, our current national security strategy of
engagement and enlargement enhances U.S. security. It promotes our
prosperity at home and extends free market economies. But the majority
of Asia-Pacific nations need reassurance. Exercises like the ongoing QDR
[Quadrennial Defense Review] shake the nations of the region's
confidence. Just the examination of our force structure causes concern.
Actual reductions would, in my opinion, cause an arms proliferation. We
must, therefore, through our words and deeds, show that our commitment
to the region and its stability is unequivocal, that America is a
Pacific nation and will stay actively involved in issues affecting the
region.
Our primary goal out there is to keep peace. We are doing that
through what former Secretary of Defense Perry called preventive
defense. For me, preventive defense comes down to three tenets:
engagement, deterrence and then, if needed, the ability to defeat an
aggressor.
First, let me address engagement. There is no better way to
demonstrate U.S. commitment than to station and deploy our forces to the
region. Working daily with this region's nations gives us the
opportunity to influence events. It gives us the opportunity for
land-based air to develop the capability for access.
The circumstances in Okinawa, for example, recently brought to
attention our military presence in the region. Both our government and
the government of Japan could have succumbed to pressures to drawdown
our forward-based forces. A decrease in numbers from our stated 100,000
commitment, would have, in my opinion, signaled to the nations of the
Asia-Pacific region the beginning of a U.S. withdrawal. After months of
negotiations, a successful agreement was reached to maintain basing
structures that allow us to support this hundred thousand commitment.
The end result was both the United States and Japan realized why we
were there. It was not just for the convenience of the United States. It
was not just for the defense of Japan. Our U.S. presence serves as a
stabilizing element for security throughout the entire region. Now, the
United States-Japanese partnership today is even stronger and provides
the added reassurance that we will remain focused on peace and stability
in the region.
Daily reassurance is reinforced by the use of military power to
engage others in peacetime military activities. We are busy doing that
every single day. These activities could be as simple as a C-5 landing
in some remote area with the American flag on its tail. It could be a 2
versus 2 with the Japanese Air Self Defense Force or it could be an
exercise, such as Cobra Gold down in Thailand. Reassurance is also
assistance to Kobe, Japan, after its tragic earthquake, or the rescue of
lost fishermen. Reassurance is deployed medical teams providing public
health and medical care to local nationals in remote locations. Presence
and involvement is reassurance. It is, and will continue to be, one of
my command's fundamental roles.
Reassurance is searching out each other through military-to-military
contacts, which builds friendship as well as understandings. Last year
alone we participated in 23 exercises with 11 different Asia-Pacific
countries. Korea and Japan dominated the list, but we also worked with
Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia and others. We had a
squadron-to-squadron visit with India and we even exercised, on a
smaller scale, with Hong Kong, Bangladesh, and Russia. Working with
those countries provided the added benefit of building trust. Trust
allows us access when needed to react to any crisis.
We are also looking at expanding our exercise up in Alaska called
Cope Thunder. Last year the Japanese and Singaporian air forces
participated, while Australia, India and Korea observed. We are now
working to provide the opportunity for others to participate. In 1998 we
plan to have five of our Asia-Pacific nation partners flying in the
skies over Alaska.
Reassurance is lacking though, without the capabilities to deter and,
if necessary, prevail in war. We cannot build, train and sustain forces
solely for reassurance. With that in mind, let me change the pace here
and talk about air and space power in the 21st Century, and how the Air
Force's vision fits perfectly with how we successfully deter, and if
necessary, achieve victory in an Asia-Pacific conflict.
What we face in this region are large standing armies, extreme
distances from the continental U. S., and terrain that impedes rapid
ground maneuvers. With the exception of Korea, where we've had four
decades to plan, prepare and preposition forces and WRM [war readiness
material], other conflicts will be fought with little or no in-country
presence, and often with very little prepositioned support. It is our
core competencies that provide the foundation we'll need to have a
credible force in the Pacific.
First and foremost -- and Dick Hawley talked a lot about this -- we
have to have air and space superiority. In many cases, our ground forces
will be outnumbered. Therefore, we must provide our joint forces with
the ability to operate throughout the entire battle space without
hindrance from above. More than 50 years ago, Field Marshal Romell said,
"Anyone who has to fight, even with the most modern weapons against
an enemy in complete command of the air, fights like a savage against
modern troops under the same handicaps and with the same chances of
success." I'd go even a step further and say, if you don't have air
superiority, the first thing you should do is start thinking about
waving that white flag.
Those that argue our present capabilities, with modest upgrades, will
ensure air superiority well into the 21st Century, are not looking at
the same air order of battle I review each day. Air superiority is
something that requires constant capability upgrades. Expecting that
today's systems will dominate tomorrow's threat is a formula for
failure. It is not a matter of entering a conflict expecting to win the
air war; we must enter knowing we will be victorious. The betting line
should be 100, or maybe even a 1000, to one. I like Muhammad Ali's old
quote when you talk about air superiority and the need to be dominant:
"If you even dream you can beat us, you'd better wake up and
apologize." [laughter]
As our nation's Air Force, we are charged with winning air and space
superiority. It is one of our core competencies. We can't accept second
place; we must be dominant. If one looks back at history, you can learn
a valuable lesson. During the Korean War, we achieved air superiority
with the F-86. It was an aircraft designed to do that. But we went into
Vietnam using the F-4, and I love the F-4; it is a great airplane; I
flew it as General Shaud mentioned. But it was an airplane not designed
for the air superiority mission. As a result, we came out with a dismal
2 to 1 kill ratio in aerial combat. We learned our lesson, and we
developed an aircraft called the F-15. That aircraft, right now, has an
unblemished combat record.
But we can't rest on our laurels. Asia-Pacific nations are becoming
capable air warriors. You'll find F-15s, F-16s, F-18s, MiG-29s, SU-27s,
and you'll soon see SU-30s all with the Asia-Pacific flags on their
tails. I think in the future you will probably see SU-37s out there
also. China is developing and producing their own SU-27s. Japan is
producing the F-2. And India is producing the Light Combat Aircraft. We
no longer have a corner on the market of air power capabilities. During
a recent deployment, our F-15 pilots went down and flew against the
Malaysians flying their MiG-29s. I need to tell you that the Malaysians
had only flown this aircraft six months by the time we deployed. Our
guys were surprised -- we didn't dominate every engagement. During the
coming months, you will hear debates about the need for the F-22. In my
opinion, without an aircraft like the F-22, we can't guarantee air
superiority, and that is unacceptable.
Along with clearing the air of enemy fighters, air superiority also
means denying the enemy an ability to launch theater ballistic missiles
against our forces and our centers of gravity. This is probably one of
our most difficult challenges. Theater ballistic missiles are
proliferating around the region because they are an easy, inexpensive
way to become a regional power. North Korea has proven that with its NO
DONG and TAE PO DONG missiles. They are impacting how we plan our
defense of South Korea as well as the Japanese defenses. China has a
reach beyond its boundaries, not because of forward-based forces or its
capable long-range aircraft, but because of its medium range missiles.
We saw that exhibited during the recent Taiwan issues. We must deny
North Korea or anyone else the use of the skies for TBM [Theater
Ballistic Missiles].
Space-based systems that detect launches and downlink the information
to airborne lasers, or other systems, are critical to our air and space
superiority. Air and space superiority means these mediums are ours,
period.
In an area of responsibility that covers two-thirds of the planet,
global attack and precision engagement are not only necessary; they are
critical. Our forward-based presence provides the foundation of forces
to conduct war, prepositioned in such strategic locations as Korea,
Japan, Alaska, Hawaii, Singapore and Guam. They are mobile, well trained
and ready to deploy quickly to react to a crisis. But we are limited in
numbers. Fortunately, our Air Force has other arrows in its quiver,
particularly for global attack and precision engagement with the B-2 and
B-1.
The B-2 represents our continuing commitment to power projection. The
B-2, as you well know, could cover the entire globe with refueling. So
it is easy to understand the impact of a B-2 on the Asia-Pacific region.
Its ability counters the argument made by some that the Air Force will
be ineffective in the Asia-Pacific region because of its lack of access
to bases.
Critical to the effectiveness of these bombers, however, will be the
continued development of smart and precise-guided weapons. Arriving
quickly at a distant target provides absolutely no dividend if the
result is a miss. And the accuracy of weapons -- like the Joint,
Direct-Attack Munitions -- will be essential in a theater where each
missile, bomb, and bullet must count. In the future, we just won't have
the luxury of large stockpiles and immediate resupply.
The recent demonstration that Dick Hawley talked about, the B-2
delivering GATS/GAM [GPS-aided
Targeting System/GPS-aided Munitions] weapons, has not gone unnoticed by
nations in the Pacific region. I suggest that we send a copy of this
demonstration to any aggressor nation that considers testing our
resolve. I am certain this tape would give them second thoughts.
I believe the need for rapid global mobility speaks for itself in the
Pacific. Yes, we do have WRM and fuel supplies forward
deployed, but they are only in a few locations. If the future looks like
the past, then they are most likely improperly positioned. Additionally,
any conflict would quickly start to deplete our assets. The need for the
C-17 and rapid resupply are critical to our deterrent and warfighting
capabilities.
Just as important is agile combat support. Its efficiency and
flexibility would substitute responsiveness for the massive deployed
inventories that we simply do not have in the Asia-Pacific region. Agile
combat support allows us to minimize the number of troops we have to
forward deploy and protect. This has a twofold benefit. First, it frees
up valuable and limited airlift in the first days of the war. Second,
the footprint of the forces exposed to the enemy is smaller. Force
protection, though still extremely difficult, gets a little bit easier.
Finally, each of these core competencies makes us a capable air and
space power in the Pacific only when you bind them together with
information superiority -- information that puts the right force in the
right place at the right time. Again, all you have to do is look at the
vastness and diversity of the Asia-Pacific region to understand that
information delays of minutes or hours could mean on-scene delays of
days and the difference often between success and failure. We must
identify the centers of gravity, targets to attack, and we can't be
wrong because we won't have many second chances. Each sortie, each pull
of the trigger, must be effective.
The Asia-Pacific region watched our success in the Gulf War. They
learned the value of technology and air power. As a result, regional
powers are seeking and acquiring the kinds of systems and capabilities
that proved so effective. Not only are they interested in the aircraft,
but they are now working on precision weapons, command and control and
communications, tactical intelligence, and electronic warfare. Economic
prosperity has given Asia-Pacific countries, including China, the
ability to obtain and even develop their weapon systems. They can either
be a threat to the United States, or an issue of interoperability with
our allies. The future holds many challenges and opportunities in this
area.
I hope I have set the stage for you to start addressing the threats
to the stability of the region. In the military, we often use the word
"threat" and immediately think, "weapon system." In
the Asia-Pacific region, military modernization will bring many
countries onto the same playing field as the United States. It includes
the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the delivery
systems that go with them.
But the threat out here in the Pacific is more than systems; it is
situations. In the Asia-Pacific region, it is the situations that will
cause instability and ultimately conflict. One of the major issues that
will become increasingly important throughout the Asia-Pacific region is
the consumption of limited global energy resources. This has the
potential to threaten peace in the region. Today, the Asia-Pacific
region is second only to the United States in oil consumption, and its
dependence continues to grow. The average Chinese citizen consumes very
little oil by today's standards. But if the Chinese begin to use oil at
levels similar to those used by the average South Korean, China's oil
needs will double those of the United States. And then you need to
consider how the flow of oil from the Middle East would affect
relationships between China and the aggressive regimes there. How would
China, Japan, Korea, and the growing economies of Southeast Asia deal
with territory issues that may include oil-rich ocean reserves -- for
example the Spratleys?
Oil is not the only energy issue. There is an increased reliance on
nuclear power in Asia, and there has always been an unsettling link
between the expansion of nuclear power plants and the potential to build
and sell nuclear weapons. That should be of primary concern to us all,
particularly when you think about countries like North Korea.
The Korean Peninsula presents the world with its greatest potential
for high-intensity conflict. If North Korea breaks across the DMZ,
thousands, perhaps millions, of people would die, and America would be
at war. The North Koreans undoubtedly will attempt to fight a war of
attrition through the use of their artillery and then follow that with a
mass of infantry. In that conflict, it will be air and space power that
will turn the tide of this annihilation and mass destruction that will
be occurring on the ground. Our role will be twofold: air superiority
and precision attack against centers of gravity.
The biggest challenge in meeting our roles in Korea won't necessarily
be the North Korean air force because they lack sophistication and
training. I believe, in short order, we would dominate them. But the
biggest challenge will be deconflicting the skies over Korea, which
would be crowded with U.S. Air Force and Republic of Korea air force,
both operating large numbers of aircraft in an area one-fifth the size
of that in Desert Storm. New and old systems will be working the same
skies, and with that, friendly identification will be a significant
problem. As we continue to search for work arounds to include all
aircraft, we need to be working on the IFF [Interrogation Friend or Foe]
capability that allows us to use Beyond Visual Range [BVR] missiles.
The true air threat in Korea is theater ballistic missiles and a
government desperate enough to not only use them against the south but
also to the east -- possibly against Japan. This is where the need for
space-based detection and targeting with airborne lasers will be key.
Will we ever see peace on the peninsula? My crystal ball says,
"Yes"; we will eventually see a united Korea. Whether that is
through conflict or peaceful means remains to be seen. This could end up
being a reunification or it could be a reconciliation. But because of
the differences and the hatred in the two societies for each other, a
combined Korea will occur only after a rough and very turbulent journey.
It will not follow with the same ease as a restructured Germany.
We are working for this peaceful solution to settle the differences.
If a unified Korea occurs peacefully, we have an additional problem: How
would they be viewed as a military and economic power? How will
countries like Japan and China view this power? And how will Korea
mature as a nation? These questions are already being asked around the
region. Without going into much detail, I believe that the distrust
which occurs between the two societies of North and South Korea will
remain for a long time, and so there will be a need in the distant
future for U.S. forces stationed on the peninsula.
Any future discussion of the Asia-Pacific region must focus on China.
Where China goes, so goes the future of Asia. We cannot ignore a country
with more than one-fifth of the world's population, with
intercontinental nuclear weapons, and one of the highest potential
economies in the world. Each year the population of China increases by
twice the number of people living in the state of Florida. For those of
you who don't know, the population of Florida is about 14 million. In
China, there are about 28 million more people a year. China is
determined to maintain control of the situations with the greatest
potential for conflict. This means trying to put "teeth" in
its claims to sovereignty in the South China Sea and also on the island
of Taiwan. All the countries in the region watch China very closely.
Is China a threat? A threat is composed of capabilities and
intentions. Their history and everything we know about them lead us to
believe that they are not inclined to follow a policy of expansion. But
they do have an extremely capable military force, including 4,600
fighters. And they are improving this capability to support such a
policy, if needed. ICBMs and production of their own SU-27s are clear
examples. The key is their intentions. If China wants to be a
contributing member of the Asia-Pacific region dedicated to regional
stability, then our efforts will be much easier. Our most critical
security task will be to help China integrate into both a regional and
international community of nations. In the economic arena, we are
engaging them in organizations such as ASEAN. We have started a dialogue
with their military, as witnessed by our recent meetings in Hawaii, but
we have a long way to go before an acceptable feeling of trust is
achieved, if we are ever to achieve that.
In the interest of time, I've grouped Southeast Asia together. That
is unfair because this is a diverse region itself with numerous cultures
and various people. But the growing economies of Southeast Asia have
allowed many countries in the region to modernize their military
capabilities. Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand are just a few
examples of countries with increasing military modernization. We are
helping them. We have sold aircraft and systems to them. But we are not
the exclusive provider. Malaysia's MiG-29s and Vietnam with their SU-27s
are two good examples of countries using other weapon systems.
I believe that in this critical part of the world, stability will
remain as long as there is a balance in military capabilities. It is an
area where countries feel compelled to keep up with their neighbors.
There remains distrust of one another, and it is where nationalism runs
high. Alone, they know they can never hope to match China's military
might, but they are reluctant to join forces in any formal coalition to
go against the Chinese. In fact, they argue against anything called a
coalition because they believe that would accelerate China's military
buildup. So they structure their forces only to match their neighbors.
They hope that we, the United States of America, stay engaged to balance
the power of China.
India and Pakistan are both friends to Americans, but their
relationship with each other remains volatile. Both are beset with
internal and regional crises but have a common concern -- like Southeast
Asia -- with a strong China. Their differences are deeply rooted, and
there is a potential that a regional conflict between them could
escalate and involve other Asia-Pacific countries. Stability here,
between these two powers, will only be improved through our continued
engagement.
I have left Japan as the last area, not because they are the least
important, but because they are the most important. Our alliance with
them is the keystone to stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan is
the world's second largest economy and is now reviewing its defense
guidelines for U.S. Japan bilateral defense cooperation. This bilateral
review process will most likely result in bilateral, regional and global
security cooperation with the United States. It is important that U.S.
and Japanese forces focus on their present partnership as an alliance
for peace. It is through our Japanese partnership that we are able to
protect and project influence in the region. Our bases in Japan, and
particularly in Okinawa, are the cornerstone of our forward presence in
the Pacific. Loss of Kadena Air Base [Japan], for example, would have a
significant impact on our capability to demonstrate deterrence or
project power in this important region.
As you can see, there are many issues that complicate and impact our
stability in the Asia-Pacific region. As a result, the region represents
a paradox. There is tension on the Korean peninsula, growing economies
that are breeding competition for limited resources, military
modernization and nuclear weapons, and yet Asia-Pacific is more stable
and more peaceful now than at any time in this century. So our strategy
is working.
As a nation with vital interests in the Pacific region, we must be
prepared to join the extraordinary economic growth taking place there, a
growth we helped make possible, a growth that supports 2.8 million
American jobs, with more likely in the future. I know that America
understands the burdens of having our military engaged and based in the
Asia-Pacific area, and I hope that we all realize the benefits of our
efforts there and the leadership role that we play. We have a long
history in the Pacific region, a history that has unfortunately claimed
more than 100,000 of our sons and daughters in three wars in this
century. The U.S. Air Force must continue to be a significant
contributor to our nation's activities in this area. We have made
significant contributions toward providing peace and stability in the
past. We are maintaining it at the present and have the potential to
ensure it in the future.
Because of our core competencies, we have the capability to link our
interests, as well as our shores, with our Asia-Pacific friends and
allies. But we must remain engaged, and only if we remain engaged will
our formula for success work. God bless you and thank you very much.
General Shaud: That was great, particularly your
view of the next century. The reason I bring that up -- if you will take
the first question in that context -- is, are you satisfied with the Air
Force's planned role in a Pacific-region MRC [Major Regional Conflict],
and do you feel it reflects an up-to-date view of Air Force
capabilities?
General Lorber: When I talk about the Pacific area,
I usually discuss air power because the vastness and long distances one
encounters in this part of the world require strong air power to
maintain the peace. It can either be in the form of carrier-based air or
it can be land-based air, or it could be support from the United States.
Our big MRC out there is the Korean peninsula. In a potential, future
Korean war, air plays a dominant role. Without air support, I believe
the million men and women that the North Koreans have poised on the
border would quickly overrun our forces. I also believe that Seoul would
be devastated, being that it is so close to the DMZ. And after
devastation of Seoul, it can be expected that the South Koreans would
head north with vengeance. In the final tally, we might inherit a
destroyed peninsula. Air power has to act fast. It has to stop the level
of destruction so that a war on the peninsula would be contained and
recovery, after minimum loss of life and destruction, is possible.
Destruction of the peninsula in a blood war, like what we had in the
1950 Korean War, would cause us all great harm, including all the
nations of the Asia-Pacific area. All countries of the region would be
affected and we'd be affected equally as much.
General Shaud: The next question is a compilation of
several. How effective has Chinese military modernization been to date
in improving the capability in extending Chinese influence?
General Lorber: You've got to look at the intent and
the capabilities of the Chinese. They have intercontinental ballistic
missiles; they've had them for a long period of time. They've relied on
them to balance out the threat they felt was from the old Soviet Union
and from the United States. Their focus was always on a large standing
army. But we are now seeing some indications that they are changing
their emphasis on ground forces and are taking down some of their
divisions. There are indications that by decreasing the size of their
army, China can then assign resources to improve capabilities in other
areas -- air being one. The most recent examples, their purchase of
SU-27s and plans to co-produce SU-27s, show how serious they are about
improving their air capabilities. I suspect you will also see an
improvement in their naval capabilities with an eye on Taiwan. My guess
is you are going to see a vast improvement in their air force and new,
more robust amphibious capability with a corresponding decrease with
respect to their land force.
General Shaud: The last question -- I'm sure you
viewed Secretary Cohen's statements that he made during his hearing. Do
you anticipate Secretary Cohen's emphasis on the Pacific having any
practical impact on areas such as resource allocation or system
acquisition toward the Pacific rim?
General Lorber: I'm going to take this question in a
different context. The new secretary talked about the importance of the
Asia-Pacific rim. Although Secretary Cohen's past focus has not been the
Asia-Pacific region, I believe he realizes the importance of being
engaged in this critical region. I suspect he will find pressure from
the majority of our Asia-Pacific friends and allies to maintain the
hundred thousand forward deployed, forward-based force. Arms
proliferation, resulting from economic prosperity, will be an issue of
growing concern. I believe the secretary has already developed profound
interest in the Asia-Pacific region and understands the threats to
stability in this area of the world and the challenges we are facing.
General Shaud: It is great to hear from a warrior,
and our best to all your operators out there in the Pacific. Thank you
very much.
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