In Michael
Crichton's novel The Great Train Robbery, archplotter
Edward Pierce is finally brought to justice for conceiving, planning,
and executing the theft of £12,000 in gold bullion from a moving
railcar. The judge asks why he did it. "I wanted
the money," Pierce shrugs.
The same explanation might be more honest than those usually given by
Congressmen and others who demand swift and sweeping cuts in the US defense
budget. To hear them tell it now, they are reacting to changes in the
Soviet Union since August. The fact is, they were clamoring for big defense
cuts last summer, long before the Moscow coup.
The Administration has shown itself more than willing to make calculated
reductions in defense. The five-year, 25 percent cut setting up last
year's budget agreement (supposedly good through 1995) was an Administration
proposal. in September, with no guarantee of Soviet reciprocity, President
Bush ordered a unilateral drawdown of US strategic forces.
Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney pleads that Congress not adopt a hasty "slash
and burn" approach to reductions. He reminded the House Budget Committee
in July that defense had been cut eleven percent in the past year while
domestic spending grew by seven percent and that under the budget agreement,
defense is headed for a historic low of 3.6 percent of GNP
Rep. Lewis F. Payne (D-Va.) asked Mr. Cheney to figure out some way
to provide a strong national defense for less than 3.6 percent of GNP.
Rep. Martin Olav Sabo (D-Minn.) said defense must come down because the
numbers in the latest fiscal projections "just simply don't fit" and "it's
just clear that we're not going to make cuts in discretionary domestic
spending."
The burning issue in July--or so it was said--was the federal deficit.
Never mind the proclamations last January that the deficit had been resolved.
It is now projected to hit $362 billion in 1992. (The government expects
to collect 19.2 percent of GNP in revenues and spend 25.3 percent. Without
artificial offsets and creative accounting, the deficit would be $425
billion.)
As a percentage of both GNP and federal spending, defense has been declining
precipitously since 1986. In 1992, the deficit will be substantially
larger than the defense budget.
In October, Rep. Leon Panetta (D-Calif.), chairman of the House Budget
Committee, called for cutting defense on the order of 40 percent over
ten years. He said this would leave the nation 15 to 18 air wings (down
from 36 in 1990), eight or so army divisions (down from 18 in 1990),
and a force level of about 1 million (down from 2.1 million in 1990).
Mr. Panetta's plan includes new spending--"investments" in
our "rendezvous with the 21st century"--of up to $370 billion
in education, health care, and economic growth measures.
Sen. Joseph R. Biden (D-Del.) proposes saving $150 billion ("real
money that can serve real needs here at home") in strategic forces.
He bases this on a Congressional Budget Office study he commissioned.
CBO found that only "modest" savings will accrue from the strategic
reductions President Bush announced in September and priced out four
options for a greater windfall. The most drastic would cut US strategic
forces more than 80 percent below the proposed START Treaty limits.
A growing number of legislators on both sides of the aisle propose to
cut defense by varying percentages to underwrite tax cuts.
The congressional defense cutters are accompanied by the usual gang
of outriders. A spokesman for the Brookings Institution, for example,
declares that events of the past few months make it possible to cut defense
by half. (Brookings called for a 50 percent cut two years ago, but perhaps
that was a different 50 percent.)
Washington Post columnist Hobart Rowen lets the cat out
of the bag. "It's time," he writes, "to bust last year's
budget agreement and--for the time being--quit worrying about the budget
deficit." The overall goal, he says flatly, is to reduce military
spending and increase "socially desirable" civilian spending.
Nobody who has watched Congress at work expects any great share of proceeds
from a defense cut to be applied to the deficit. Is it a coincidence
that Congress wants to formally reopen the budget agreement? As the rules
stand, funds can be reallocated within--but not between--categories.
Defense can be cut, but the money cannot be spent elsewhere.
This is not to say that Congress and the outriders are unconcerned about
the deficit or that they are not genuinely moved by developments in the
Soviet Union. Mostly, though, they want the money.
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