Shadow on the Subcontinent
"The relationship between India and Pakistan continues to
be unsatisfactory, and the potential for conflict is high. Each
of these nations possesses nuclear capability, so every effort
must be made to avoid military confrontation. India is making
preparations for a nuclear test, and we assume that, if one nation
conducts a test, the other will follow."
John M. Deutch, Director of Central Intelligence,
in the CIA's annual "Worldwide Threat Assessment Brief,"
presented February 22, 1996, to the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence.
Pilotless Aircraft?
"We're doing it now [using pilotless, uninhabited aircraft].
Certainly in the Predator for surveillance aircraft, we are doing
that. . . . We [also] basically made the decision that the surveillance-warning-navigation
missions that we had in space could best be accomplished unmanned.
That decision was made a long time ago. It has to do with the
nature of the medium and [the fact that] the times in which we
can have a satellite operate in that environment are measured
in the tens of years. We make those decisions all the time. There's
a lot of excitement about what the Predator has been able to
accomplish, but at the same time we also are getting great utility
from the U-2 [manned reconnaissance aircraft]. It's very, very
important to understand that there's a balance here."
Air Force Secretary Sheila E. Widnall, in a February
16, 1996, press conference at AFA's Air Warfare symposium in
Orlando, Fla.
Compared to $40 Billion Today
"What we must now do is ensure that we put more money into
recapitalizing the force and into modernizing the force. . .
. In my judgment, you're talking about $60 billion a year . .
. somewhere in . . . the 1998 time frame. . . . It's a good benchmark
to discipline the system so we don't each year take money out
of acquisition accounts to pay for other things."
Army Gen. John M. Shalikashvili, Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, in February 15, 1996, remarks to the Defense
Writers Group in Washington, D.C.
Double . . .
"I want to stress that it's not the job of the military
to run a police state, and it's not their job to go out aggressively
to search for war criminals, and they don't intend to do that."
Pentagon spokesman Kenneth H. Bacon, in a February
13, 1996, press briefing on US military missions in Bosnia-Hercegovina.
. . . Vision
"I think we served clear notice on Karadzic, Mladic, and
other indicted war criminals that they will be brought to justice
and that, sooner or later, they will be arrested if they do not
voluntarily surrender."
John H. F. Shattuck, assistant secretary of state,
in a briefing the next day on a US diplomatic mission to Bosnia.
He referred to Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb political leader,
and Gen. Ratko Mladic, the Bosnian Serb military leader.
Ralston and the Revolution
"In my view, [the term] 'revolution in military affairs'
refers to the recognition that future war will be fought in the
context of an information-rich battlefield. . . . This recognition
calls for a different way of thinking about battle, as well as
the training and equipping to prepare for it. In an environment
of ever-increasing information, the commander will have staggering
situational awareness. . . . The real challenge of our future
is to understand more precisely what we recognize intuitively--that
the information-age battlefield will be very different, and the
force that masters the means and methods will have a decisive
advantage."
Gen. Joseph W. Ralston, USAF, former commander of
Air Combat Command and now vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs
of Staff, in a January 22, 1996, letter to the Senate Armed Services
Committee.
The Iran Nightmare
"Iran is undertaking a major program to develop a nuclear
weapon. . . . Iran is also pursuing a biological warfare program
that could give them a weapon near the turn of the century. We
expect Iran to become essentially self-sufficient in chemical
weapon precursor production in the next three to five years.
Iran has negotiated with North Korea to purchase the No Dong
1 [long-range missile], which is especially worrisome, given
the threat that it would pose to Israel."
USAF Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper, Jr., then director
of the Defense Intelligence Agency, in secret testimony to the
Senate Armed Services Committee. A partial transcript of the
testimony, delivered January 17, 1995, was recently declassified.
Thinking the Unthinkable
"War between China and Taiwan is unthinkable today. It makes
no sense. It is as unthinkable as an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait
was in July 1990, as unthinkable as China entering the Korean
War against the United States was in November 1950, as unthinkable
as Britain having to expel the Argentines from the Falklands
seemed in 1982."
Foreign affairs analyst Jim Hoagland, writing in
the February 11, 1996, Washington Post.
Deutch's Reassurances
"The June presidential election will be an important juncture
in the brief history of democratic Russia. Should the Russian
people choose a Communist or hard-line nationalist, further progress
toward democracy and economic reform would be in question. Even
if a hard-line government takes power, however, Russia is not
likely to be transformed back into the Soviet Union. Moreover,
the Russian military, struggling to cope with numerous problems,
is not likely to regain its former strength."
CIA Director Deutch in the "Worldwide Threat
Assessment Brief."
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