AEF Development On Track
With eight Aerospace Expeditionary Force cycles behind it,
USAF is transitioning to the new world of AEFs on schedule and
with success, according to Maj. Gen. Carrol H. Chandler, Expeditionary
Aerospace Force implementation director at the Air Staff in Washington.
That does not mean that things are going perfectly-or that
lessons for future deployments are not being learned almost every
day, said Chandler on a recent visit to Davis-Monthan AFB, Ariz.
EAF implementation is "a marathon, not a sprint," he
said.
In the field the biggest challenge seems to be training, preparing,
and deploying as trained teams in groups known as Unit Type Codes.
Airmen are still learning what that means.
Wing commanders are still learning how to balance engagement
operations and stay-at-home missions.
Major commands are still facing the challenge of shaping modular
UTCs and making them useful.
Component commands "are our key to defining, or asking
for, [UTC] capabilities for the warfighting [commanders in chief],"
said Chandler.
Most feedback has been positive. But the predictability of
the EAF experience is still uneven. Late taskings continue.
"We know there are airmen who have received as little
as a week advance notification of deployment. This is not good
and is not our goal," said Chandler.
Air Force leaders are looking at crew ratios to help lessen
the strain on low-density, high-demand units. And they are pleased
that reserve participation in the AEF concept is right on track.
"The initial plan was for up to 10 percent [Air Reserve
Component] contribution-that target has been struck dead center,"
said Chandler.
Ryan Hits Funding Shortfalls
Gen. Michael E. Ryan, Air Force Chief of Staff, asserts that
the United States is badly underfunding airpower.
At a June 7 Korean War remembrance ceremony, reported by USA
Today, he said that the same lack of money that hampered US military
readiness at the start of that war 50 years ago afflicts today's
force.
US military spending in June 1950, at the outbreak of the
Korean War, was at its second-lowest point since the Japanese
attack at Pearl Harbor in World War II.
The lowest point? Today.
"History teaches us a lot of lessons if we'll just listen,"
Ryan said.
Budgets have been so constrained that the Air Force has had
difficulty reshaping itself for the post-Cold War era, said Ryan
on May 23 at an aerospace power seminar sponsored by DFI International.
"We have underfunded the defense side of this nation's capability
for some years," said the Chief.
Lawmakers Demand Suspension of
Anthrax Shots
On May 16 a bipartisan group of 35 members of Congress sent
Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen a letter requesting that
the Pentagon's mandatory anthrax inoculation program be suspended
until the Pentagon can find an improved vaccine.
On the same day, they received a response not from Cohen,
but from Charles Cragin, who signed the letter as acting undersecretary
of defense for personnel and readiness.
The lawmakers' letter followed up on a House Government Reform
subcommittee report issued Feb. 17. (See "Aerospace World:
House Panel Calls for Halt in Anthrax Shots," April, p.
12.) That report called for DoD to suspend the current program
and be more aggressive in researching a second-generation vaccine
that would shorten the shot regimen.
They wrote that "anecdotal evidence continues to grow
of severe, adverse systemic reactions in recipients of the vaccine."
The lawmakers claim that DoD has ignored questions raised by
the National Academy of Science, the General Accounting Office,
and even the Pentagon's inspector general.
Cragin, in the Pentagon's response, said that he could not
agree to a suspension, which he said would jeopardize thousands
of military men and women.
More than 400,000 military personnel have received the shots.
Some 620 have complained of side effects, according to DoD. Though
there are no conclusive figures on how many military members
have refused to take the shots, some opponents of the program
put the number at around 300.
On May 31, five of the 35 lawmakers sent another letter to
Cohen. They called Cragin's letter inadequate, saying he ignored
most of the facts they presented. Dan Burton (R-Ind.), John Conyers
(D-Mich.), Bob Filner (D-Calif.), Jack Metcalf (R-Wash.), and
Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) have asked that Cohen respond personally
this time.
The House Appropriations Committee report on the Fiscal 2001
defense budget, released June 1, included a provision for an
additional $1 million to accelerate development of an alternative
vaccine. However, the appropriators did not ask for a program
suspension.
Pentagon Rejects Split Up
of JSF Program
The Pentagon has dropped the idea of splitting the Joint Strike
Fighter contract and spreading around the work to bolster the
fighter industrial base. It's not needed, said officials.
According to DoD, aircraft producers will in the next 20 years
have sufficient work-in particular, production of unmanned aerial
vehicles and upgrading of older aircraft-to maintain a strong
business base.
The last two US fighter-makers-Boeing and Lockheed Martin-are
locked in a hot, winner-take-all battle to build JSFs.
Some in Congress, concerned about the industry's health, wanted
to change the JSF program to allow competitive production. Lawmakers
feared that the JSF loser would be forced out of the military
airplane business entirely. Recent Congressional action to bring
about those changes also would slow it down.
This worried DoD officials. Pentagon acquisition chief Jacques
Gansler told a June 22 news conference that Congress had no justification
for further delay and that maintaining the JSF schedule is "critical."
Gansler said he is "very confident that we will [buy]
unmanned vehicles [in] significant volume in the future."
Some of these will be combat aircraft, he noted, and this will
represent a substantial amount of work for airframe houses.
He predicted service-life extensions and modifications for
the Navy F/A-18, long-term foreign military sales of the latest
models of the Air Force F-16, and work on the USAF F-22 program.
All would contribute to the industry's business base.
"We have quite a bit of work in those plants," Gansler
reported. "It was for that reason that I didn't think industry
base considerations should drive this decision as much as the
pure economics of it."
Big Bucks
The contract, which Gansler pegged at $200 billion to $400
billion-will remain a winner-take-all contest.
On the same day, Defense Secretary William Cohen released
the text of a letter to Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Calif.), the chairman
of the House Appropriations defense subcommittee. The letter
explained the Pentagon's desire to press on with the program
and presented its findings on the industrial base issue.
Gansler said DoD analysts, after several months of review,
could find no cost benefits to splitting up the JSF's contract,
despite substantial "empirical evidence" that competition
yields lower cost and better product performance. While competition
has worked well on engines and missiles, Gansler said, it has
never been attempted "on something this large" or as
complex as an entire modern combat aircraft.
Weighing against the notion of competitive production were
two key factors: the high cost of building duplicate tooling
and the inefficiency of building JSFs in small lots in two separate
locations. Moreover, said Gansler, the need to set up and qualify
a second source would bring costly delays.
Even so, the Pentagon commissioned Rand to make an independent
study of the issue. The study, which will have no DoD input,
is due by year's end.
The Pentagon's decision does not preclude all competition.
Gansler said there is competition on many levels of subcontracts,
such as for the engines. "There are other ways of bringing
in competition," he added.
The JSF program managers at Boeing and Lockheed Martin have
said they would likely award the loser a share of the work to
take advantage of expertise and industrial capacity.
Gansler said it is critical to stick with the timing of the
program because that is the only way to meet the needs of the
Air Force, Marine Corps, and Navy. In any new delay, said Gansler,
the Air Force would be hardest hit.
Starting in 2009, there will be a "rapid falloff"
of F-16s, as the fleet surpasses its design service life of 6,000
hours per airplane, Gansler said. Even on the present schedule,
the JSF won't be fielded in numbers until 2011, and so the Air
Force will still have to spend "a couple of billion dollars
on upgrading the F-16s" to keep them going long enough.
The Air Force has a stated requirement for 1,763 of the new
aircraft.
The Marine Corps passed on a chance to buy the F/A-18E/F,
deferring a replacement buy so it could buy 609 models of a short
takeoff and vertical landing JSF variant, which is also to be
a supersonic fighter. The Marines are to receive the first JSFs,
in 2010, since the AV-8Bs the service now flies will have run
through their already extended service lives by then.
The Navy's slightly larger version of the JSF, of which 480
are planned, would not start arriving in the fleet until after
2012.
"That's the reason why it's so important not to let the
schedule slip," Gansler explained. "Dollar reductions
[by Congress], of course, result directly in schedule slips."
Timing Is "Critical"
Both industry and the Pentagon estimate an overseas market
for the JSF at about 3,000 aircraft, making it, according to
Cohen's letter, "critical to the modernization of our ally
forces for coalition warfare."
Gansler said tri-service procurement of highly similar aircraft
will yield $15 billion in development savings and many additional
billions of savings stemming from reduced support and training
costs.
In addition, said Gansler, the JSF's huge production run will
bring about a low unit cost. That, coupled with the fighter's
high combat capability, will make JSF unbeatable in the foreign
military sales arena. Foreign competitors will find it "almost
impossible" to stay up in the global market. Said Gansler,
"It's just going to be awfully difficult to come up with
an airplane in this price range-this stealthy, and with advanced
avionics, and with all these [new] weapons on it."
Unit cost of the JSF will be $30 million to $35 million, depending
on the variant, said Gansler.
The two contractors will submit their proposals in November,
and the Pentagon plans to select a winner next spring. Flying
demonstrators-not full-up prototypes-will be tested this summer,
with testing continuing into next spring. Besides stealth, manufacturing
processes and materials, the demonstrators will prove the companies'
approach to achieving short takeoff and vertical landing in a
supersonic airplane, what Gansler called the most challenging
design feature.
Britain is a full partner on the program, and British officials
will sit on the source selection committee choosing a winner.
Though Britain's largest military supplier, BAE Systems, is partnered
with Lockheed Martin, Gansler said he expects London to be impartial
in its choice, basing its decision on performance and cost rather
than British industrial base considerations.
Gansler said the JSF may be the last manned fighter built
by the United States.
-John A. Tirpak
|
Tiger Team to Study C-5 Readiness
Recent declines in the mission capability rate of the C-5
Galaxy have led Air Force leaders to form a tiger team that will
attempt to find ways to improve the availability of the mammoth
airlifter.
Policies and processes, not people, will be the issue, said
officials.
"Let there be no question that this is about what is
wrong and not about who is wrong," said William Cromer,
deputy director, Warner Robins Air Logistics Center C-5 System
Program Office.
The team will split into two groups and deploy to a dozen
US bases over the summer. It hopes to develop the most complete
picture of C-5 operations, maintenance, and logistics ever compiled.
Members will try to identify problems, offer solutions, and
make recommendations for both short- and long-term improvements.
"With major modernization and re-engining projects approaching
in the next several years, what we implement now through this
effort will help us move smoothly through those future phases
without a dip in C-5 availability," said Cromer.
US Says it Plans no Troop
Reductions in Korea
Despite signs of a political thaw on the Korean peninsula,
US forces there aren't going anywhere anytime soon.
That's the word from top US military and diplomatic officials
in the wake of the historic and unprecedented June meeting between
South Korean President Kim Dae Jung and North Korean President
Kim Jong Il.
They say that the US military presence in South Korea-currently
about 37,000 US Air Force and US Army troops-remains critical
to the security of the region, and no reductions are contemplated
at this time.
Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon said that, even if reunification
occurs, South Korean President Kim wants US troops to stay as
a regional stabilizing force.
Secretary of State Madeleine K. Albright publicly emphasized
that the US troops would not be withdrawn any time soon. With
South Korea's foreign minister at her side, she said talk of
reducing or withdrawing American troops was "not appropriate"
and "premature."
Foreign Minister Joung Binn Lee, responding to a question
stated, "American forces will be needed here even after
the establishment of a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula."
He noted that South Korean President Kim made it very clear that
US troops play a vital role for stability.
|
Tricare Dental Plan Improved
Tricare's 2001 dental program will feature lower premiums,
expanded service, and greater availability when it begins early
next year.
In April the Department of Defense awarded a five-year, $1.8
billion contract to United Concordia Co., current administrator
of the Tricare family member dental plan. Changes under the plan
will take effect Feb. 1, 2001.
"One of the most significant changes is that reserve
component members and their families will be eligible to enroll,"
said Navy Capt. Lawrence D. McKinley, the Tricare Management
Activity's senior consultant for dentistry.
Premiums for active duty family members will drop from current
levels during the first two years of the contract. They may rise
thereafter "but will remain very reasonable," said
McKinley.
The $21.33 family rate will be reduced to $19.08 in the first
year, for instance.
Other improvements will include an increase in the annual
maximum for general dentistry from $1,000 to $1,200 and expansion
of coverage for diagnostic and preventative services.
Service Moves to Further Cut
Smoking
The Air Force has decided to adopt some new anti-tobacco programs
in its effort to eventually make the service smoke-free.
Twenty years ago more than half of the Air Force's personnel
smoked. Today that percentage is down to 29 percent. But progress
in driving the number still lower has stalled since 1995, convincing
service health officials that they need to intensify their approach.
"We'd like to continue to see a downward trend and help
to keep educating and informing people of the adverse effects
of tobacco use," said Lt. Col. Wayne Talcott, DoD Alcohol
Abuse and Tobacco Use Reduction Committee co-chairman.
The new programs and policies include a smoking ban in all
Department of Defense facilities by 2002, tobacco cessation studies
for basic trainees that help educate them on the effects of smoking
over a long period of time, and a joint-service project to train
smoking cessation facilitators.
The Air Force banned smoking in basic training in 1986. It
began smoking cessation classes for smokers in 1980.
"Our No. 1 goal is prevention. ... We hope to catch those
who are thinking about smoking or using tobacco products and
deter them," said Talcott.
Sea-Based Missile Defense Unlikely
Sea-based assets are not part of the Pentagon's plan for national
missile defense-at least not for now.
Pentagon officials say they realize that interceptors and
radars based on ships might someday add another protective layer
to their system of systems. But development of such equipment
would take time, and right now the Defense Department needs to
move as quickly as possible.
"Much more work needs to be done on the elements of a
possible sea-based supplement to a land-based system," said
Pentagon spokesman Ken Bacon.
Navy officials have been quietly planning for a future in
which their developing regional theater missile-defense systems
are upgraded for national missile defense duties.
But right now even those theater systems are experiencing
development pains. Problems with the kinetic kill warhead are
threatening to delay the Navy's Theater Wide missile defense
project and could increase its costs.
The problem is that the materials used in the kill warhead's
thrusters have not been able to withstand the tremendous temperatures
they generate, reported Defense News on June 19. The high temperatures
stem from the fact that the warhead must travel at tremendous
speed to catch ballistic missile targets.
"Elementary Logic"
for Serbian Leaders
On June 8, the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.,
held a seminar on Operation Allied Force, NATO's air war against
Yugoslavia. Army Gen. Wesley Clark, Supreme Allied Commander
Europe, delivered the keynote address, part of which postulated
a major land-force role in NATO's victory. Excerpts:
"In the summer of 1998, ... we looked at about a dozen
ground options. Two involved forced entry into Yugoslavia. One,
an entry into Kosovo. One, an entry into Serbia itself. We estimated
at the time it would be about 75,000 combat troops for the Kosovo
operation and about 200,000-plus combat troops to go all the
way in. This was on the shelf. It was one of the concept plans
that was used, reviewed by NATO leadership, and it was always
present in our thoughts. ...
"The strategy was to announce a threat, make a threat.
If that didn't work, to carry out the threat of air. If that
didn't work, to move to the next level, and that next level would
have been ground.
"As we were working in early April, beginning our SHAPE
assessment very privately in my headquarters, we had on the ground
already 11,000 troops with the ACE [Allied Command Europe] Rapid
Reaction Corps in Macedonia. By late April, we had Task Force
Hawk and ACE Mobile Force-Land on the ground in Albania, with
the US V Corps headquarters. ... And by early June, we'd announced
the buildup of the forces to fill out the full 50,000-plus requirement
of the Kosovo force. So we had forces flowing again into Macedonia.
...
"I would suggest it was elementary logic for Milosevic
to conclude that something bad-very bad-was going to happen to
his forces in Kosovo, and relatively soon. ... It had nothing
to do, in my view, with declaratory statements; it had everything
to do with the capabilities of the force on the ground. ...
"Some people thought that ground forces really didn't
play. Let me just talk for a moment about Task Force Hawk. ...
It had a corps headquarters, two dozen Apache helicopters, and
a bunch of other helicopters with it. It was a mixed heavy-light
brigade on the ground with tanks. It had multiple-launch rocket
systems-155 mm, 105 mm artillery; key elements from the corps
headquarters; very robust logistics and communications. It was
a full joint strike force. It was a lot more than 24 helicopters.
"It deployed in less than 30 days from a virtual standing
start into a restricted airfield in adverse weather in the midst
of a humanitarian crisis. It was trained and ready to go by the
required date, and it had strategic impact. ... These ground
forces signaled resolve, demonstrated capabilities, stabilized
both Albania and Macedonia, enhanced the targeting of fielded
forces, gave credibility to the ground threat, and then let us
go quickly into [Kosovo] at the end of the fighting."
|
USAF Faces Civilian Employee
Shortage
In five years more than 45 percent of the Air Force's civilian
employees will be eligible for retirement-meaning that service
leaders need to start planning now if they are to avoid a manpower
shortage in the near future.
Air Force Materiel Command anticipates having to hire 26,000
people between now and 2007, for instance.
"This is just as serious a problem as the overall Air
Force blue-suit recruitment issue," said Gen. Lester L.
Lyles, AFMC commander. "The civilian work force---constituting
60 percent of our people--is part of our total force equation."
The civilian workforce has already shrunk substantially over
recent years due to service downsizing. Ten years ago the Air
Force employed roughly 260,000 civil service personnel. That
number has shrunk to about 165,000 today.
Many of those who left were more junior personnel, leaving
the Air Force top-heavy with senior civilians. Fully one-third
of Defense Department civilians as a whole are now over 51.
Air Force leaders hope a new force-shaping and sustaining
strategy will help them maintain the right mix of youth and experience
in the years ahead.
To gain more accessions, the Air Force is looking at strategies
such as greater investment in interns and other developmental
trainees, to provide stability in sustainment efforts. A key
here, too, is "to be more competitive in our hiring practices
to recruit the best-qualified people in the current economy,"
said Roger Blanchard, assistant deputy chief of staff for personnel.
At AFMC, officials say they are now engaged in a significant
recruitment effort. However, they stress that the Air Force needs
legislation to ease hiring practices.
"The one instrument I need most, and has the broadest
application, is a streamlined hiring authority," said Leif
Peterson, director of civilian personnel for AFMC. "We have
dated hiring authorities now that are time-consuming and cumbersome.
We need one that addresses the competitive marketplace but still
complies with public policy requirements and is responsive to
the competition we now face."
Airborne Laser Gets Funds
When defense spending and authorization bills are wrapped
up later this year it is likely that Congress will have restored
most, if not all, of the $92 million the Air Force cut from the
Airborne Laser program to pay operational bills.
In the Senate, both the authorization and money legislation
have the $92 million added back. The funding increase is needed
to keep ABL on track at least through its first planned intercept
test, according to Senate aides.
House versions have added about $10 million less back to the
ABL account. They also include language that would transfer authority
for the ABL program from the Air Force to the Ballistic Missile
Defense Organization-the better, say House ABL proponents, to
protect it from further Air Force-directed reductions.
That is a change Air Force leaders hope will be eliminated
in House-Senate conference.
"This program was born in the Air Force, brought up in
the Air Force, and deserves to be fielded by the Air Force,"
said Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Ryan in a letter to the chairman
of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Floyd D. Spence (R-S.C.).
Korean War Death Figure
Adjusted
Fifty years after the beginning of the Korean War, the Pentagon
has issued a clarification emphasizing that 33,686 US troops
died in that conflict-not 54,246, as is commonly reported.
Sources from the Encyclopedia Britannica to the Korean War
Memorial in Washington repeat the higher figure. The mistake
stems from a government statistician who at some point in the
past took the number of combat deaths in Korea--33,686--and added
the number of non-battlefield deaths--20,560--that occurred in
the US military during the Korean War years.
But most of those non-battlefield deaths occurred far from
Asia, at US or European bases and in training exercises. The
number of non-battlefield deaths that took place in the Korean
theater of operations is 2,830.
If nothing else, the clarification highlights how much safer
day-to-day military operations have become. About 17,000 US military
members died outside the Korean theater between 1950 and 1953.
That's about double today's peacetime death rate, even after
adjusting for the different number of troops involved.
"We have made incredible strides in reducing the number
of non-combat accidental deaths, training deaths, and things
of that sort in recent years," said Pentagon spokesman Rear
Adm. Craig Quigley June 6.
|
F-15s: Buy New or Buy Old?
A Boeing study commissioned by the Air Force concludes that
the cost of building an F-15 can be cut by half-making it less
expensive to build new Eagles than maintain old ones.
According to the study's figures, as reported by Jane's Defence
Weekly on June 14, the Air National Guard would save between
$6.5 billion and $8.9 billion over 20 years by buying 115 new
redesigned F-15Cs instead of taking old ones from the Air Force
and upgrading them, as current plans call for.
The cost savings would stem from improved manufacturing processes
and from using less-expensive materials and components in some
instances. The F-15C+ would replace a boron composite with another,
slightly heavier material that is only one-tenth as expensive,
for instance.
Britain Plans to Lease C-17s
The United Kingdom's Ministry of Defense announced its intention
to lease four Boeing C-17 Globemaster III airlifters for the
Royal Air Force beginning in 2001.
At first, aircrew training and maintenance support will be
handled by the contractor and the US Air Force.
The order might give a boost to Boeing's offer to sell the
US an additional 60 C-17s at a discount of about 25 percent.
Currently, the Air Force has 120 C-17s on order.
It may also persuade other US allies to purchase the giant,
modern airlifter. Countries which have reportedly expressed interest
include France, Germany, Canada, and Australia.
Portugal Joins F-16 Consortium
Portugal joined the F-16 Multinational Fighter Program in
a signing ceremony held at NATO headquarters June 9.
Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, and the United States
are the other members of the program, which was founded to develop
and produce the Fighting Falcon. Its goal now is joint work on
long-term upgrades and sustainment of each nation's F-16 fleet.
"The addition of Portugal into the [Multinational Fighter
Program] improves the affordability and continued superior performance
of upgraded F-16s well into the 21st century," said Secretary
of Defense William Cohen.
For its next move, the group will explore a multinational
purchase of precision guided munitions. Such a group buy should
reduce PGM unit costs.
"Since the Kosovo campaign, the US has pressed its NATO
allies to improve their precision strike capabilities in order
to better share the responsibilities in the event of a future
air operation," said Cohen.
US, Russia Clash on Missile
Defense
The June summit between President Clinton and Russian President
Vladimir Putin only served to highlight the deep differences
between the US and Russia on the pressing question of missile
defense.
Putin rejected Clinton's call for a change in the 1972 Anti-Ballistic
Missile treaty that would allow the US to build a ground-based
defense against incoming nuclear warheads. He surprised US officials
by floating his own proposal, in return: mutual construction
of a defense designed to attack ballistic missiles in their boost
phase.
While some US experts said there could be intriguing technical
aspects to the Russian proposal, most dismissed it as more politics
than policy.
"At this point, it's an idea that does not, at least
to me, appear to be feasible or desirable for protecting us against
the kinds of threats that are emerging," said Secretary
of Defense William Cohen, after Russian Defense Minister Igor
Sergeyev outlined the plan to NATO officials on June 9.
Details of the Russian plan remain sketchy. According to Cohen,
it would consist of two main elements.
The first would be a layer of defenses intended to protect
the US and Russian homelands by destroying rogue state missiles
in their vulnerable, slow-rising boost phase. This would require
basing interceptor missiles near their possible targets. North
Korea, for example, could be deterred by the placement of defenses
in South Korea or on ships in the Sea of Japan.
The second layer would use theater ABM systems to protect
Europe. Such defenses, designed primarily to counter short- and
medium-range weapons, are allowed under the terms of the ABM
pact.
Construction of the European layer could proceed apace with
currently planned equipment. But the boost phase defenses, if
they are to be effective, could take quite a bit longer. It is
doubtful they could be ready by 2005, the current deadline for
construction of the Clinton Administration's planned first defense
phase.
"We are willing to listen to proposals about a boost-phase
intercept system, but our understanding is that it requires a
great deal of technical challenge," said Cohen.
Pentagon officials consider it a victory of sorts to get Russia
to talk about any kind of missile defense, whether its form is
acceptable to the US or not. For the Kremlin to do so means that
it implicitly acknowledges that there is a threat to the world
at large from the missile programs of North Korea, Iraq, Iran,
and other nations of concern.
But summit results clearly showed that the Kremlin does not
share Washington's sense of urgency about this developing threat.
USAF Faces Severe Hurricane
Season
Air Force bases located in the hurricane-prone eastern region
of the US are girding themselves for an extra-difficult hurricane
season this year, say Air Force officials.
A typical hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30) features
nine storms that become severe enough to earn names and six full-blown
hurricanes, with two hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher. But
due to changing ocean current cycles, forecasters expect this
year to be particularly severe, with 11 named storms and seven
hurricanes, with three Category 3 superstorms.
That means that base evacuations may be more likely this summer.
Last year the Air Force evacuated people and aircraft from 25
installations that were located in Hurricane Floyd's predicated
Atlantic coast path.
"One life lost is too many, and in the case of an aircraft,
a single aircraft may cost between $15 [million] and $150 million,"
said Col. Michael A. Neyland, Air Force deputy director of weather.
"On the other hand, it might only cost $1 million to evacuate
a base."
Floyd, a Category 4 storm, caused $2 million in damage to
Seymour Johnson AFB, N.C. Its 155 mph winds were just the sort
of weather that the service wants to protect itself against.
But winds are not the only problem. Flooding from heavy rainfall
or storm surge can be more damaging to buildings than wind. And
hurricanes often create weather conditions that are conducive
to tornado development.
"Hurricane Andrew's devastation of south Florida, including
Homestead AFB, was worsened by tornadoes spawned by the hurricane,"
says Lt. Col. Harold A. Elkins, chief of the weather operations
division at the Pentagon.
