
By Stewart M. Powell
Russia's military, tapped by President Vladimir Putin
for a thorough revitalization, is under pressure to
clean up its own act.
Even staunch advocates of increased support for Russia's
soldiers, sailors, and airmen are turning their guns
on the waste and mismanagement that have weakened the
force in recent years. They say that spending more
on the military as presently constituted will only
feed its penchant for squandering resources on a gargantuan
scale.
Few have any doubts that Russia's armed forces were
in a deep crisis, the scope and magnitude of which
can be glimpsed in a random sampling of problems:
- Fighter pilots get 14 hours of flying time per
year.
- Murder claims 500 troops per year--18 times the
number in US armed forces.
- Ground station fires knock out ground military
communications systems and communications with satellites.
- Commanders sometimes seize electricity plants to
prevent loss of power to ICBM bases.
- Thieves in the navy--including officers--are stripping
submarines of valuable equipment for sale to criminal
gangs.
Now, the Kremlin, for the first time since collapse
of the Soviet Union a decade ago, seems serious about
tackling problems besetting the force. Fueled by humiliating
setbacks in Chechnya and the disastrous loss last summer
of the submarine Kursk with all hands, Putin's planned
revitalization aims to increase the resources and prestige
of the armed forces.
Experts say that Putin's support, however, will not
be sufficient by itself to bring about a military revival.
Moscow simply does not have enough money to rebuild
the force in its traditional form. Eliminating wasteful
practices and structures is the key, they say, and
painful reform is inevitable.
As experts see it, the best outcome for Russia would
be the emergence of a smaller, more modern fighting
force shaped to deal with border incursions and internal
disruptions.
The president himself vows to end the practice of
devoting "colossal resources" to lumbering
forces which "wasted" precious sustenance
on "peripheral issues."
Putin has warned, "The structure of the armed
forces must precisely correspond to the threats Russia
faces now and will face in the future. To maintain
such a cumbersome and at times ineffective military
organization is extravagant. In our situation it's
simply impermissible."
Putin repeated his insistence on reforms in remarks
to graduates of Russia's military academies in late
June, declaring: "We are paying special attention
to military construction and military reform. The unique
geopolitical location of Russia, its vast territory
and long borders present great demands before defenders
of the homeland."
Attacking the Bloat
The most intense reform pressure focuses on cutting
Russia's bloated and expensive force structure.
It is true that Russian forces, including paramilitary
rear services, have already been cut from Cold War
levels. Their end strength in the 1990s shrank from
about four million to 1.2 million. (However, some 1.5
million of the troops that were eliminated came from
rear support and strategic forces-not from theater
units.) Even so, analysts are virtually unanimous in
the view that Russia no longer has a need for a million-man
force.
They
note the size of today's Russian military approximates
that of US forces, which have global responsibilities
and conduct operations at far higher intensity.
For a poor country like Russia, keeping such a large
force has obvious drawbacks in terms of quality. Alexei
Arbatov, deputy chairman of the Duma's defense committee,
has noted that the US per-troop expenditure exceeds
that of the Russian military by a factor of 45. The
implication is that Russia can have quantity or quality,
but not both.
Russia "is unable to fully finance the armed
forces," says Gen. Vladislav Putilin, deputy chief
of the Russian armed forces' general staff and head
of the general staff directorate for organization and
mobilization. "The reduction of armed forces personnel
is inevitable."
In a search for more balance in forces and budget,
Putin last September ordered a three-year reduction
to slice another 350,000 service personnel from the
rolls, leaving only 850,000 in 2003. That force will
be only 21 percent as large as the force that existed
at the end of the Cold War.
Hardest hit in the Putin plan will be the regular
army, currently at 348,000, which would have to absorb
cuts of about 180,000 troops.
Still, the other services are not immune. Russia's
185,000-strong air force would drop by another 40,000
service members and the 172,000-man navy would lose
50,000 sailors.
Russia's reform-minded politicians and military commanders
are hoping that the personnel reductions will free
enough funding to bring about a substantial boost in
spending on fuel, spares, maintenance, and training.
There are dangers, however. By any standard, the cut
is a large one, and it has been opposed by more traditional
elements in the armed forces. Mindful of the risks
of a political backlash, Putin describes his force-cut
crusade as a "measured, calm, and smooth" effort
to "optimize the country's military machine" with "no
massive, wholesale reductions."
Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov adds: "National
security is not a sphere where revolutions are admissible."
Increasing Professionalism
Equally important is the goal of reining in the military's
harsh and sometimes murderous ways and increasing the
professionalism of the force.
Putin reportedly captured 90 percent of all military
votes, at least partly because of his pledge to curtail
the hated draft long used to fill the ranks of the
Russian armed forces. Many Russian analysts maintain
that reform efforts will produce only cosmetic improvements
unless it somehow brings an end to conscription and
ushers in a volunteer force.
Reality is extraordinarily bleak for Russia's hand-me-down
armed forces and has been for years. Putin, elected
in 2000, has declared his dedication to ending the
neglect that has brought missed paydays, food shortages,
brutal hazing of conscripts, and corrupt moonlighting
by underpaid and undisciplined troops.
The poor quality of basic provisions and equipment
only adds to miseries of the Russian fighting man.
Combat equipment is shoddy. In Chechnya, Russian troops
would rather risk injury or death than put on outmoded
protective gear. They enter combat wearing bandannas
instead of helmets, not for lack of discipline but
because out-of-date army flak jackets and helmets impede
movement while offering almost no protection.
The Russian air force complains it receives a fifth
of the fuel that it needs to sustain proper training.
The story is much the same elsewhere. The navy, for
example, has not deployed to train in the Mediterranean
since the winter of 1996-97.
It appears that only the vestiges of strict Sovietera
control have prevented a disastrous revolt in the face
of perilous conditions that spawn an estimated 400
to 600 suicides by troops each year, about four times
the rate in American armed forces.
It is the draft that lies at the root of Russia's
most serious problems. Everyone agrees that the twice-yearly
roundup is a nightmare to run. It is increasingly unpopular
with the Russian people. And it leads to demoralization
in the ranks.
The
draft law calls on all draft-age men to serve two years
in the armed forces. In reality, a majority obtains
exemptions, leaving the armed forces filled with second-class
recruits drawn from barely 12 percent of all draft-age
men between ages of 18 and 27. Health problems disqualify
30 percent of the would-be recruits.
Violence in the ranks is so common that it is considered
part of Russian military tradition. Hazing, beatings,
and worse are commonplace.
These low-paid, poorly disciplined troops are deployed
to operate the submarines, warplanes, and nuclear weapons.
Now, political reformers and many senior Russian military
officers themselves back efforts to end conscription
and shift to an all-volunteer force. As Putilin puts
it, a professional armed force that is well-paid, well-fed,
and widely respected remains "the great dream
of all servicemen."
The effort faces two major roadblocks. The first is
cost. Today's Russian conscript comes close to being
a slave laborer, with a paycheck of about one dollar
per day. Russians are only too aware that the American
switch over from a draft army to an all-volunteer force
in 1973 has resulted in vastly increased outlays for
pay, housing, and benefits.
The second barrier is overtly political-the strong
desire on the part of some military and Kremlin figures
to hold onto the prestige that comes from having a
large standing military, even if it is of the paper-tiger
variety.
Redirecting Investment
In addition to taking on force structure and the draft,
the reform effort seeks to divert defense funds into
new areas.
The goal would be to speed the modernization of what
has become a badly outmoded Industrial Age force, one
that lags well behind the West and even some newly
emergent nations in the sophistication of its defense
systems.
The Kremlin says that, by 2015, it should be devoting
50 percent of the Russian national defense budget to
research and development and weapon procurement. That
would mark a dramatic shift in emphasis. Today, Moscow
devotes roughly 70 percent of defense spending to personnel
and maintenance.
"Our army must be a modern, flexible, mobile,
combat-capable force," Putin says. "We cannot
simply maintain the army, refusing to train it in new
technologies or to buy modern equipment."
Already, the military is shifting around forces in
anticipation of the payoff of additional budget resources
arising from the shift in investment decisions. Oksana
Antonenko, a research fellow with the Londonbased
International Institute for Strategic Studies, notes
that the Russians plan to create by 2006 a pair of
high-readiness joint force groups, one to be based
in Southwestern Asia and one in Central Asia.
"These forces will be the first to receive new
weapons systems," says Antonenko. "Priority
in equipment modernization will be given to air force
and missile air defense, communications, and reconnaissance
systems as well as precision weapons."
De-Emphasizing Nukes
Another goal of the overhaul is to close down or at
least greatly reduce the Russian military's traditional
emphasis on nuclear might.
Nuclear arms have been the showcase weapons that have
afforded impoverished Russia a plausible claim to something
like superpower status. However, these days are ending.
"Everything should be balanced," says Ivanov,
the defense minister. While strategic rocket forces
are "the nuclear shield of the country" and "a
reliable barrier against aggression toward Russia," says
Ivanov, "the world is changing; we see new threats
that were not apparent 10 years ago."
Aging ICBMs are being allowed to reach the end of
their operational lives without replacement. Production
of the SS-27 Topol-M weapon, Russia's only new-production
ICBM, has been slowed from 10 to six per year.
The strategic rocket forces, once the pride of the
defense establishment, has lost command of Russia's
missile defenses and space-based assets. Putin plans
to fold strategic rocket forces into the Russian air
force--a severe bureaucratic blow to this once mighty
bureaucratic organization.
For now, the strategic rocket forces' command structure
has been amalgamated with the general staff chain of
command. A 2006 review will map plans for integration
into the air force.
This issue is politically explosive. Last year, the
then-Defense Minister, Marshal Igor Sergeyev, publicly
rebuked Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, chief of the general
staff, for even suggesting that the strategic rocket
forces be turned over to the air force. He said the
scheme was a "psychotic attack" that betrayed "plain
madness." Sergeyev, by the way, is a strategic
rocket forces veteran.
Putin gave encouragement to military reformers by
the way in which he put an end to the dispute. He sacked
Sergeyev and turned over the defense minister post
to Ivanov, 48, a trusted colleague and former KGB two-star
general.
Putin's challenges are far from over. In fact, many
Western analysts express deep skepticism about his
prospects for ultimate success.
"There has been a remarkable lack of progress
in most areas of military reform and that fact in itself
is news," says Terence Taylor, IISS assistant
director. "I suspect the armed forces will be
able to get their share of the defense budget, but
whether that will enhance the situation is doubtful."
Putin's regime has not yet met its commitments to
pay special salaries to former soldiers who rejoined
the armed forces as contract soldiers to fight in Chechnya.
The re-enlisted troops were promised about $1,000 a
month in contrast to the $200 a month paid to midlevel
career Russian officers.
Other experts say that Putin's move to end the SergeyevKvashnin
standoff masked wider bureaucratic jockeying over such
issues as the role of coastal vs. internal border defenses
and the importance of strike aviation vs. land forces.
And Then, Chechnya ...
On
top of everything else, there's the military millstone
in Chechnya. Russian troops have yet to fulfill Putin's
promise to quell the Chechen rebellion and preserve
Russian territorial integrity against terrorist threats
after waging a 20-month campaign with the loss of an
estimated 3,100 Russian troops.
Chechen fighters still pester Russian forces garrisoned
in the restive area. The Russians have destroyed the
capital of Grozny and captured most of the territory
in a counter-insurgency operation that turned into
a large scale military intervention before subsiding
into a garrison-based occupation featuring checkpoints,
bases, and Russian convoys.
Kvashnin conceded that 200 of Chechnya's 357 population
centers remain so unsettled that Russian troops are
needed to keep order. In Chechnya, Russia no longer
maintains a 100,000-man force, but in early May Ivanov
canceled plans to make another major cut, instead reducing
the remaining 80,000 troops by only 5,000.
Chechnya's Kremlinbacked civilian government
was forced to retreat from Grozny in early May back
to the second largest city of Gudermes. And a fierce
two-day battle claimed the lives of at least 15 Russian
soldiers and 28 Chechen irregulars. Russian forces
have failed to eliminate the small- and medium-size
Chechen armed groups and their leaders or effectively
seal the region against an infusion of military supplies
and financial resources to support guerrilla activities.
Putin remains adamant, rejecting any suggestion of
scaling back operations. "It would be an unforgivable
mistake to retreat and abandon the republic again," he
said.
Putin is underscoring that he is not afraid to tackle
the tough issues or wade through controversy to achieve
his goals. He is moving to correct past mistakes, including
taking steps to arm Russian forces with better equipment,
ranging from night vision equipment and improved artillery
to airborne reconnaissance from aircraft and electronic
intelligence.
What does this portend for broad military revitalization?
Putin is politically stronger and better positioned
than anyone else to revamp the military, but even he
has said that the changeover could take a decade or
more. Yet to be seen is whether Putin's determination
will be enough to bring about the changes in attitude
and organization that everyone agrees will be needed.
Stewart M. Powell, White House correspondent for Hearst
Newspapers, has covered national and international affairs
for 30 years in the United States and overseas. His most
recent article for Air Force Magazine, "Air Force
Medics in Peace and War," appeared in the January
2000 issue.