Of all the uncertainties
that currently affect the Air Forces prospects
for realizing the near-term promise of military space,
none is more crucial than the basic question of howand
at what opportunity costthose prospects will
be financed.
Under current arrangements,
USAF has increasingly come to shoulder the burden
of funding what
are, in effect,
two major military mission areasair and spacewith
an annual budget share intended for only one. Although
all of the services benefit from the space product
ultimately provided, military space funding comes
almost entirely out of the Air Forces budget.
One reason the other services have so readily acquiesced
in the Air Forces long-standing dominance of
military space is that USAFs provision of virtually
the entire military space product essentially has
allowed them a free ride. It should scarcely be surprising
that the other services would have such voracious
appetites
for space support when they do not have to pay for
such costly benefits themselves.
For its part, however, the Air Force has become increasingly
hard pressed to uphold both air and space responsibilities
with a constant one-third share of overall annual
US defense spending. Meanwhile, demands for space
support
and space force enhancement by all services have
grown steadily since military space first came of
age during
Operation Desert Storm.
Recognizing this growing Air Force predicament, the
Congressionally mandated Space Commission concluded
in January 2001 that Americas military space
capabilities are not funded at a level commensurate
with their relative importance. The commissioners
voiced special concern that the Army and the Navy
are the defense communitys largest users of
space products and capabilities, but the budget activities
of those two services consistently fail to
reflect the importance of space. This pointed
up a dichotomy
between the importance of space to the Army and the
Navy [and] the funding commitment these services
make which needs
to be addressed.
The commissioners appeared to be saying between the
lines that the other services are not bearing their
fair share of the funding burden for the space-related
services provided to them. Specific areas noted by
the commissioners as underfunded included space situational
awareness, enhanced protection and defensive measures
for on-orbit assets, modernized launch, and the science
and technology program, featuring space based radar,
space based laser, hyperspectral sensors, and reusable
launch technology.
Weight and Cost
An aggravating factor is that space applications
have become increasingly expensive as the US defense
establishment
has become increasingly dependent on them. One seemingly
intractable cause has been the high cost of space
launch, which has imposed a limit on the rate at
which the
US can expand its military assets on orbit. The constant-dollar
price of getting a satellite to low Earth orbit has
not changed much over the past two decades. The cost
per pound to LEO for most commercial satellites now
on orbit ranges between $3,600 and $4,900, depending
on the altitude and character of the orbit. The cost
per pound for getting a payload all the way out to
geostationary Earth orbit is considerably higher$9,200
to $11,200.
Furthermore, the prospect for any substantial diminution
in launch costs over the next 10 to 15 years remains
dim because of the unalterable physics of chemically
fueled, rocket-based launch. There is little near-term
technology offering any promise of circumventing
this problem.
One mitigating factor is miniaturization. It has
slowly but inexorably increased the functionality
of each
payload pound on orbit, making possible the development
and launching of smaller satellites. A decade ago,
military satellites typically weighed between 5,000
and 20,000 pounds. Now those going to LEO usually
weigh between 500 and 2,000 pounds. This means that
the cost-per-pound
issue may turn out to be less pressing in the future.
Further compounding the continued high cost of space
launch is another factor. The Air Force is facing
an acquisition challenge of the first order due to
the
block obsolescence of many on-orbit systems now in
service and the emergence of a new generation of
replacements. Virtually every major US military space
system is due
for an upgrade or replacement over the coming decade,
at an estimated cost of some $60 billion. These include
the Global Positioning System satellites, all military
communications satellites, and the Defense Support
Program constellation of missile-launch sensors.
There also is the looming prospect of space capabilities
coming within the grasp of adversaries who would
threaten some US satellite functions. That stimulates
a need
for expenditures on defensive and counteroffensive
space control measures.
The potential of new capabilities such as space based
radar, laser communications, and hyperspectral sensing,
all of which can significantly enhance overall terrestrial
force effectiveness, also compound the funding problem.
These technology opportunities have arisen at a time
when the Air Force is facing an unprecedentedly costly
task of replenishing its deployed air assets, including
not only new fighters such as the F/A-22 and F-35
but also new tankers, airlifters, and intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance
platforms. All of these procurement needs are competing
for shares of the Air Force budget.
Zero-Sum Game?
Clearly, the Air Force can never make good on its
obligations to exploit military space unless it begins
sinking
more money into that effort. Yet the nations
space priorities must not blot out equally vital
air-related mission needs. Not even the services
most senior space leaders would argue that the Air
Force can afford
to abandon its existing core air mission responsibilities
simply to free up more money for space.
At present, there is a zero-sum competition going
on between military space priorities and other USAF
spending
requirements, including its force-projection needs.
Should the Department of Defense continue its current
resource apportionment practices with respect to
space, the Air Force will, in the words of one former
senior
space officer, find itself faced with the untenable
option of capitalizing space with its increasingly
limited resources.
As one serving space officer declared, Todays
zero-sum budget environment does not provide enough
money for organizations to support both their core
competencies and other essential, though ancillary,
functions. ... Under todays configuration,
the Air Force is expected to equally prioritize funding
opportunities for its own direct warfighting capabilities
as well as its own and its customers [space]
support needs.
She added, These space services represent non-core,
non-warfighting services that carry some of our nations
largest must-pay bills.
A core challenge facing the Air Force entails finding
an equitable funding arrangement that will underwrite
the nations military space needs in the interest
of all services without doing so at the expense of
the services Title 10-mandated air responsibilities.
All signs are that space funding needs to be drawn
from the US defense budget as a whole, not just from
the Air Forces more limited R&D and procurement
allocations. Contributions could come from funding
now devoted to Army helicopters, Navy and Marine
aviation, submarines, surface ships, tanks, howitzers,
and all
other military R&D and procurement programs across
the board.
Military space is not just another Air Force service-specific
functionlike airlift and close air supportthat
has long served other categories of military operations
and other services. Rather, it constitutes a separate
and distinct mission arena in its own right, one which
promises, over time, to become as costly as the land,
maritime, and air arenas are today.
Needed: New Mechanism
To address this challenge, the Space Commission proposed
a new approachcreation of a new DOD major force
program (MFP) budget category for space. It would
cut across service lines with a view to providing
a single
budget mechanism for space. It would foster greater
transparency in the tracking and management of multiservice
space procurement programs.
One advantage of such a budget solution is centralization,
which would bring clarity, for the first time, to
overall US military space spending. The current method
obscures
the way the nations military space money is
reported.
As long as US military space funds are provided as
they are nowalmost entirely within the Air
Forces
R&D and procurement budgetsofficials in
the Office of Management and Budget and in Congress
will
be inclined to continue their familiar and historic service
budget balancing practices, and the other services
will be more than content to go along.
As matters stand, space will only get well at the
expense of air programs, unless the overall DOD funding
topline
for military space is increased or alternate funding
arrangements across service lines are implemented.
Who Will Pay?
This raises a critical question: If push comes to
shove, whose program interests should be forced to
suffer
to finance an accelerated shift of American military
capabilities into space? The four services are incapable
of reapportioning the defense budget in favor of
more equitable support to Air Force air and space
interests
at the expense of competing accounts. This would
require the services to set aside their own high-priority
interests
in the roles and resources arena. Trade-off decisions
of that magnitude should be made by the most senior
US civilian defense leaders.
It is worth noting that there is nothing preordained
or immutable about the way in which the American
defense budget is divided. That is strictly a matter
of senior
civilian leadership choice and Congressional consent.
In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the Air Forces
share of the overall US defense budget ranged from
40 to 44 percent. (See table above.) It happened
because national strategy demanded it.
Until the new space MFP is better defined and more
fully institutionalized, the Office of the Secretary
of Defense may need to exert greater control of the
space requirements of the other services. The Joint
Requirements Oversight Council may need to closely
adjudicate those requirements. Fiscal reality must
be taken into account when DOD is identifying and
budgeting for new space needs.
The evolving space MFP mechanism will enable the
defense comptroller and other supervising entities
to view
the entire space funding scene for the specific purpose
of sizing the space-related budget and scrubbing
excess service requirements. They can single out
and delete
those which represent overlap or redundancy or are
merely desirable.
Such oversight should put senior officials in all
services on notice that everything they ask for in
space will,
henceforth, entail a trade-off with everything else
they ask for in the other MFPs. That provision alone
should help bring greater rigor to the space requirements
process.
Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld ratified
space as a separate and distinct military mission
area. Now
needed is a funding arrangement in which the other
services will have to make contributions for their
service-specific space ambitions and requirements.
Such an arrangement would help ensure that the air
operations portion of the Air Forces Title
10 responsibilities can compete on more reasonable
terms
with the programs of the other services, with the
Air Force, as the DODs designated executive
agent for space, setting the direction of the national
military
space effort.
With respect to the pivotally important issue of
DOD space funds management, OSD last year issued
a draft
directive authorizing the Air Force to periodically
review the space program, budget, and accounting
mechanism, which
the directive described as a virtual MFP,
and to recommend to the DOD comptroller suggested
changes to the content of that virtual MFP.
A subsequent DOD report to Congress on the departments
implementation of the Space Commissions recommendations
expressly defined the virtual MFP as consisting of
some 180 program elements grouped into space control,
space force application, space force enhancement,
space support, and other space.
More important yet, it identified space program elements
not only from the Air Force, but also from the Army,
Navy, Defense Information Systems Agency, and Defense
Advanced Research Projects Agency. Their aggregation
in this new and unprecedented manner should give
the Air Force, as the designated space executive
agent,
an unprecedented ability to identify cross-service
program overlap and redundancies.
Title 10 Authority
The Space Commission recommended asking Congress
to amend Title 10 of the US Code to give the Air
Force
statutory authority over the space as well as air
mission area. On reflection, OSD chose not to follow
up on
that recommendation out of concern over the legal
Pandoras
box it might open. As a result, the air mission area
is now assigned to the Air Force by Title 10, but
the space mission is assigned by executive authority.
Nevertheless, the Air Forces space executive-agent
role has a Title 10 context, even if it lacks Title
10 authority. Conversely, the planned MFP for space
has a Title 10 flavor though it is set in an executive-agent
context.
Although the new arrangement will be insufficient,
in and of itself, to relieve the Air Force of its
current budget problem, it may offer initial building
blocks
for constructing a better solution.
Ultimately, if US military space exploitation is
to be properly funded without compromising the Air
Forces
continuing Title 10 air responsibilities, DOD will
need to settle on a more equitable arrangement. Fee
for service, one option sometimes suggested,
is, by most expert opinion, not the right answer
for multiple reasons. That said, this issue warrants
creative
examination by the Air Force and by OSDs concerned
principals, along with determined and energetic action
by both, as appropriate, to realize the full promise
of the pending space MFP.
On this point, a note of guarded optimism recently
was sounded by the designated executive agent for
space, Undersecretary of the Air Force Peter B. Teets.
He
spoke of a new receptivity to change among
senior Pentagon leaders and the establishment of an
environment where, perhaps, additional resources
can be brought to bear to achieve some great objectives.
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