Service recruiting and retention in the 1990s reflect the effect of a massive postCold War force drawdown, a sharp rise in operations tempo, an exodus of experienced enlisted personnel, a long national economic boom, and a lower propensity among youth to serve in the armed forces.
When the drawdown ended, the Air Force, Army, and Navy found themselves short of recruiters, recruits, and experienced troops. For USAF, the problem became acute as it battled the civilian industry for technology-savvy personnel. By 1998, recruiting and retention levels for the three largest services had dropped. Only the Marine Corps, which had been spared major force cuts, held steady on personnel.
Intensive recruiting efforts, coupled with higher military pay and better benefits, helped all services meet recruiting goals in Fiscal 2000, which ended Sept. 30. Improvements in the military retirement system brought higher retention rates, reflected in the upticks by each service for Fiscal 2000.
Fig. 1, "US Military Recruiting," shows that 1990
recruiting figures for the Air Force, Army, and Navy marked the
highs for the decade. From 36,200 recruits in 1990, the Air Force
dropped to its lowest recruit total--30,000--in 1991 and again
in 1994. By 2000, it had climbed to 34,400.
Army recruiting shows the greatest swing. From a 1990 high of 89,600, Army numbers fell to 62,900 in 1995, nearly a 30 percent drop. Two years later, the Army number rose to 82,100. But by 1999, the figure had fallen once again--to 68,200. Intensive recruiting efforts brought numbers back up to 80,000 in 2000.
Navy recruiting shows an overall downward trend from 1990 through
1996. The Navy experienced a decrease of about 33 percent from
1990 to 1996. Navy recruiting numbers then remained fairly flat
until 1998, rising slightly in 1999 and then to 55,000 in 2000.
Marine Corps numbers held fairly steady throughout the period, peaking in 1993 with 34,800 recruits. USMC was the only service to meet its recruit quota each year.
Fig. 2, "US Military Retention," shows the overall retention record in percentages of actual first-term rates. The records of all four services in 2000 show an upturn from 1999. The Air Force achieved its highest retention percentage of first-term personnel over the decade in 1995. By 1999, the retention rate had fallen to 49.1 percent, down 13.9 from 1995.
The Navy's best year for first-term retention came in 1991, with 41.4 percent staying in. Declining retention rates dominated subsequent years, with the lowest-28.2 percent-retention in 1999.
The Army suffered its lowest retention rate of first termers in 1992, with just 30.7 percent. By 1997, that rate had climbed to its highest level of 54.4 percent.
The Marines' highest rate occurred in 1990, at 29.9 percent
retention of first-term personnel. A subsequent downward trend
hit a low of 17.2 percent in 1993, then began to rise throughout
the 
rest of the decade. As of Aug.
31, 2000, the Marines had increased the retention of first termers
to 26.3 percent, their next-best rate after 1990.
Fig. 3, "USAF/Navy Retention Rates," presents a comparison
of the two services' first- and second-term rates, in percentages
achieved and in goals for the years 19962000. Fig. 4 on USAF
retention charts Air Force first-term goals and percentages achieved
for that five-year period. Fig. 5 on Navy retention tracks the
record of Navy goals vs. percentages achieved from 1998 to 2000.
Comparison with Army and Marines was not possible because those
services use percentages for goals, and numbers for actual retention
figures.
Sources: Secretary of Defense Annual Reports, 19912000; Defenselink News; OSD Personnel and Readiness Office, Historical Retention Trend Data.