Last July 14, the largest Western military parade
of the year took place, as always, in Paris. The huge
throng of Bastille Day marchers wound its way through
the center of the capital and down the Champs Elysees,
much as it has done in preceding years. In a notable
break with tradition, however, French troops this time
were joined by foreign contingents. Soldiers of eight
other European nations marched in the streets, even
as British Jaguar and German Tornado fighters roared
overhead.
The alteration was no accident. The Bastille Day parade
was a symbolic gesture meant to emphasize and celebrate
the birth of a distinctly European military force to
back the continent's vast economic and diplomatic power.
Indeed, as France began its six-month presidency of
the European Union, Paris made it a top priority to
follow through on commitments to forge a strictly European
corps of up to 60,000 troops ready to deploy to a world
hot spot by 2003. In what was seen as a precedent-setting
move in that direction, the five-nation European Corps
headquarters took command earlier this year of the
46,000 NATO forces in Kosovo, 80 percent of which are
European.
France is the most passionate promoter of this distinct
European Security and Defense Identity (ESDI). "The
European Union must make its voice heard more clearly
on the international stage," French President
Jacques Chirac declared in a recent speech. "We
have conviction, as well as courage. But our commitment
lacks coherence, and, it must be said, Europe's action
does not have a high profile."
The dream of a distinctly European foreign policy
and defense identity has inspired the French at least
since the times of President Charles De Gaulle, who
in 1966 withdrew France from NATO's integrated military
command structure in reaction to the preponderant US
role in the Alliance. Today, however, the vision is
endorsed not only in Paris but also in London, Brussels,
and even Washington.
After last year's successful launch of the euro, the
common European monetary unit, European Union officials
headquartered in Brussels are brimming with confidence
and anxious to match their growing economic and diplomatic
clout with military might. Though long skeptical of
any European initiatives that could jeopardize its "special
relationship" with the United States, Britain
under Prime Minister Tony Blair has become a key proponent
of ESDI.
Clinton Administration officials, meanwhile, see the
ESDI process as the most promising way to motivate
European allies to modernize their military forces
and shoulder more of the West's defense burden.
Unanswered Questions
"There should be no confusion about America's
position on the need for a stronger Europe," said
Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott at a NATO
conference shortly after the unveiling of the ESDI
plan last December. "We are not against. We are
not ambivalent. We are not anxious. We are for it.
We want to see a Europe that can act effectively through
the Alliance, or, if NATO is not engaged, on its own."
Even so, US officials and lawmakers are troubled by
a number of specific and as-yet-unanswered questions.
Among them:
Will the effort to create EU crisis management and
military staffs and separate European headquarters
bring wasteful duplication that drains resources and
energy from NATO?
Will the creation of a distinct European defense identity
lead to a decline in the commitment of European states
to NATO as the primary security agency of first resort
in times of crisis?
Is that very outcome--the decline of NATO--an unspoken
European goal, especially in France?
How will the EU reconcile its views with those of
non-European Union NATO allies such as Turkey and Norway,
who could conceivably be asked to bail out an errant
EU-led operation despite having had little say in its
launching?
How can an EU renowned for bureaucracy, fractiousness,
and tenacity on trade issues develop the instinct for
trans-Atlantic cooperation and consensus that has proved
critical to the success of NATO for the past 50 years?
Most importantly, why should one believe that the
Europeans will finally, this time, manage to find the
money and political backbone to turn their defense
and foreign policy ambitions into reality?
"The Europeans have raised the bar pretty high," said
Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D-Del.), the ranking Democrat
on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "Whether
they go over it or under it, there are likely to be
consequences."
If Europeans fail to live up to their rhetoric and
dramatically undershoot their military force goals,
the political fiasco could reinforce calls by NATO
skeptics in Washington for a US disengagement from
the affairs of Europe. "If this is handled badly
from a public relations standpoint, it could well fuel
a growing sense of isolationism in the United States," said
Biden. "That's why it's so important that the
Europeans stay the course in terms of dollar and troop
commitments to Kosovo and with ESDI."
Defining Moment
Historic and at times harrowing events over the past
two years have conspired to accelerate Europe's campaign
for unified, autonomous positions in foreign affairs
and defense.
One significant boost came in December 1998, when
Blair and Chirac issued the St. Malo declaration on
European defense. The accord stated in unequivocal
terms that "the [European] Union must have the
capacity for autonomous action, backed up by credible
military forces, the means to decide to use them, and
a readiness to do so in order to respond to international
crises."
Simon Serfaty, director of the Europe Program at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington,
saw the declaration as a pivotal moment. "St.
Malo was important because it signaled a change in
traditional stances on the part of both Great Britain
and France," he said. "Because Britain was
now a leader in the effort, it also assuaged US concerns."
Blair managed to mute London's own traditional skepticism
about such a Eurocentric force. He claimed--convincingly--that
it was the only thing that would prod European nations
to make the military investments necessary and that
the United States had been demanding.
"The French have also taken great pains in recent
years to emphasize that they now believe a European
defense force should be developed with NATO, rather
than outside the Alliance," said Serfaty.
Realization of the long-held dream of a common European
currency also gave the 15 EU member states confidence
they could indeed surmount monumental challenges in
the name of unity. The value of the euro dropped 14
percent after its introduction--and a number of key
EU members such as Britain have yet to adopt it--but
participating members are on schedule to fully abandon
their national currencies in favor of the euro in 2002.
The dual goals of monetary union and common foreign
and security policy originated in the same document,
the Treaty on European Union, drawn up in December
1991 and known as the Maastricht Treaty. It has largely
charted Europe's post-Cold War course toward greater
unity.
"One reason the United States is now taking the
concept of ESDI more seriously is because the Europeans
actually introduced the euro, despite a lot of naysayers
who insisted it would never happen," said Serfaty. "And
once you get the money right, it's natural to start
working on the foreign policy and military force pieces
of the puzzle."
Flexing Muscles
The growing confidence with which the European Union
has been flexing its muscles in foreign affairs and
security matters has been clearly evident in recent
months.
Take, for example, the Austrian case. When Austria,
an EU member, installed a coalition government that
included the far-right Freedom Party of Nazi-sympathizer
Joerg Haider, the EU took the unprecedented step of
threatening sanctions designed to isolate Austria diplomatically.
In other assertive moves, European Courts of Justice
and of Human Rights struck down laws in Germany banning
female soldiers from jobs involving weapons and a British
law banning gays in the military, thus raising questions
of national sovereignty and provoking controversial
showdowns on two issues that have bedeviled US military
policy for years. Rather than fight the courts, both
EU countries moved with little fanfare to bring their
militaries into compliance with the rulings.
NATO's 50th anniversary summit in Washington in 1999
was notable for having codified the quid pro quo at
the heart of the European drive for its own security
arrangement. Washington endorsed ESDI and proposed
procedures whereby NATO might transfer assets to an
EU-led operation if the Alliance opted out. The Europeans,
in turn, pledged themselves to a Defense Capabilities
Initiative to close a trans-Atlantic gap in defense
capabilities and advanced military technologies.
The 1999 war in Kosovo added urgency to both impulses.
European leaders were unsettled to find themselves
embroiled in a shooting war whose outcome was wholly
dependent on the actions of a nation whose President
had for months been in the grip of impeachment and
whose national legislature seemed unsupportive of the
war effort. Suddenly, the Europeans were forced to
think seriously about what would happen in a crisis
should America not answer the bell. This nightmare
vision made some Europeans determined to develop their
own defense wherewithal.
Kosovo also forced American and European officials
to face the fact that a great gap had opened up in
technological prowess and power projection capabilities
of the two sides-a gap so great as to have created,
in essence, a two-tier Alliance. Out of necessity,
US forces conducted 90 percent of the precision airstrikes
in Kosovo, and the United States supplied an overwhelming
proportion of the required command and control, intelligence,
reconnaissance, strategic lift, and logistics.
"The Kosovo air campaign demonstrated just how
dependent the European allies had become on US military
capabilities," remarked Lord George Robertson,
NATO secretary general.
Robertson further noted that the Europeans became
major contributors only after hostilities ended. (They
supplied most of the on-the-ground peacekeepers.) Whether
it was precision-guided weapons or all-weather aircraft,
ground troops able to reach a crisis quickly or battle
management systems, the Europeans were found lacking.
The danger was put bluntly by Robertson. He said, "We
must avoid ... a two-class NATO, with a precision class
and a bleeding class. That would be politically unsustainable."
Devilish Details
After fully endorsing ESDI in principle at the Washington
summit in 1999, US officials began riding herd on the
process to try to ensure that the Europeans lived up
to their commitments as part of the plan and to ensure
that the process did not lead to rifts between NATO
and the EU.
There have been annoying moments. For example, Clinton
Administration officials were alarmed last year by
diplomatic language that emerged from an EU summit
in Cologne in June 1999. It seemed to suggest that
the Europeans were backing away from the bedrock principle
that NATO, and not the EU, would remain the option
of first resort in times of future crisis. When EU
officials also seemed reluctant to formalize consultations
between the EU and NATO, US officials immediately suspected
the French of reverting to form and once again trying
to keep the United States at arm's length on European
security deliberations.
Amb. Alexander Vershbow, the permanent US representative
to NATO, chided his European counterparts on the point. "Sometimes
one suspects that there are fears on the part of some
members of the EU--[French Strategic Affairs Director]
Regis de Belenet may want to comment on this--that
if the NATO-EU connection were established too soon,
the United States would somehow pollute or contaminate
the EU's internal workings. It's as if the United States
were some kind of computer virus that, once let in
the door, would cause a complete meltdown of the EU's
ability to make decisions."
Vershbow later developed this theme in an interview. "We
did sense a real disconnect between the Washington
summit and the EU summit in Cologne," he said, "and
it's taken quite some time to get things back on track.
There are still some potential pitfalls we haven't
solved that fall under the heading of unfinished business."
Vershbow went on, "We must preserve the important
principle that NATO remains the option of first resort
in security matters. The US has to establish how non-EU
allies such as Turkey and Norway will be included in
their deliberations on possible EU-led operations.
And we need to formalize the NATO-EU connection."
The most delicate unfinished business concerns whether
Europeans will match their muscular rhetoric with resources
and political willpower.
There's no getting around the fact that, nearly two
years after the emergence of ESDI, most European defense
budgets remain flat. Germany has even proposed significant
defense cuts. Many European armed forces also remain
largely configured for the Cold War, with inadequate
strategic lift and logistics capability and bloated
personnel rosters. In 1999, personnel expenses consumed
a stultifying 61 percent of European defense budgets,
compared to only 39 percent of US defense spending.
Unavoidably, the large force sizes leave little money
for modernization. In 1999, the US spent 24 percent
of its defense budget on new systems. The corresponding
figure in the EU was 14 percent.
Doing What Europeans Do
Vershbow noted, "The important thing is that
the Europeans not use smoke and mirrors to reach their
goals, because already there are signs that they may
be using some accounting tricks. The Europeans are
now talking the talk, but they're not yet walking the
walk."
Concern about trans-Atlantic burden-sharing--a perennial
flash point in Congress--flared anew this past spring.
Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen traveled to Munich
to complain that the European allies were tardy in
supplying 4,000 civilian police and $36 million in
reconstruction funds they had promised for Kosovo.
Following up, outraged Senators attached a provision
to a defense bill setting a July 2001 deadline for
the withdrawal of all US forces from Kosovo and threatening
a major reduction in funds for the Kosovo operation.
Ultimately the bill was defeated but not before greatly
alarming European allies.
"The concern I have raised with our European
colleagues was that this problem in Kosovo comes on
top of a dangerous pattern of defense budget cuts in
Europe," Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) said in an
interview. "They're talking about new defense
structures and ESDI, but that begs the question of
where the resources are going to come from when their
defense budgets are declining. At the same time, we
Americans need to be careful not to prematurely drive
a stake in the heart of ESDI, because we should encourage
our allies to take a serious look at their collective
defense capabilities."
In June, NATO Secretary General Robertson traveled
to Washington to argue that European allies had gotten
the message. He also stressed that the same forces
the Europeans have pledged to upgrade as part of a
deployable 60,000-troop Eurocorps would also be available
to NATO if the Alliance decided to take the lead of
an operation.
"I believe we have turned the corner and are
now winning the argument over reduced defense budgets
in Europe," Robertson said, speaking to defense
reporters. "There are very few European countries
now contemplating defense cuts, and the majority are
actively reshaping their armed forces. That reflects
the alarm bells we in Europe still hear ringing in
our ears over the Kosovo conflict. We in Europe recognize
that we have to rebalance the Alliance to meet future
threats."
Beneath the wrangling over defense expenditures lies
a less obvious but deep-seated anxiety within NATO
over the bureaucratic culture of the European Union.
When ESDI was envisioned, plans called for all-European
operations to be handled by the Western European Union,
a much smaller organization that specialized in security
issues. Last year, national leaders chose to subsume
the WEU to the EU, which itself has laid out an aggressive
agenda to expand to as many as 20 countries in the
next few years.
The Leviathan
Even with its current 15 members, the European Union
already has a formidable reputation for spinning red
tape and inducing inertia. Meanwhile, the EU's executive
body, known as the European Commission, was forced
to resign en masse last year after publication of a
140-page report that detailed cronyism and financial
irregularities.
US officials in Brussels in recent years have fought
EU counterparts to bloody stalemates over trade issues
ranging from "hush kits" on US aircraft to
bananas and hormones in beef. That tradition of confrontation,
if applied to sensitive and weighty trans-Atlantic
security issues, could have disastrous repercussions.
"The EU is a huge institution with no culture
in defense decision-making and a number of members
like Ireland and Sweden with a tradition of neutrality," said
an official on NATO's international staff. "Compared
to the WEU--which was a small organization that had
no grand aspirations--the EU is also much less modest.
If ESDI is not managed very carefully, I can easily
see fissures developing in relations between NATO and
the EU."
Publicly, the US continues to endorse ESDI as a way
to increase European burden-sharing within the Alliance.
Privately, senior US officials display significant
ambivalence. They believe that the ESDI-ization process
has gained nearly irreversible momentum. They further
note that European success no less than failure would
inevitably lead to a decline in US predominance in
NATO. Europe would demand influence and senior military
positions commensurate with its increased contribution.
That in itself could cause a serious political reaction
in Congress. Said a top US officer at Supreme Headquarters
Allied Powers Europe in Belgium: "My concern is
that, if we don't find exactly the right balance in
this effort, this whole notion of a separate European
defense identity could be leveraged by those in Washington
who would like to bring US troops home from Europe."
Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger used to
lament that there was no phone number a statesman could
dial to speak to "Europe." Trying to forge
a common policy response from Europe's fractious nations-even
in the face of a monolithic Soviet threat--was no easy
task. One positive result of the ESDI initiative, however,
is that such a phone number now exists. Dial 285-5000,
city code Brussels, and a phone will ring just off
historic Schumanplatz at the center of the European
Union's vast headquarters complex, a sweeping structure
of pink marble columns, glass-and-steel walls, and
a stone courtyard that at once invokes old world splendor
and new age aspirations. The ring will be answered
at a new diplomatic crisis center near room 50DH 30,
office of the man some experts have taken to simply
calling "Mr. Europe." His name is Javier
Solana, a former Spanish politician and Secretary General
of NATO who was named late last year as the first EU
High Representative for Common Foreign and Security
Policy.
"Does the United States now have a single phone
number to get European Union opinion on defense and
foreign policy issues?" he asked rhetorically. "I
suppose my number will serve, at least as much as we
in Europe have any single number to call in Washington,
D.C., for similar discussions."
Since taking office, Solana has argued forcefully
that the events of the past year have propelled Europe
beyond the point of no return in its long quest to
match its vast economic power with political and military
influence on the world stage.
"Imperative"
As former Secretary General of NATO, however, Solana
is determined to minimize the trans-Atlantic tensions. "Establishing
a European Security and Defense Identity while still
maintaining strong trans-Atlantic ties is not only
possible, it's imperative," said Solana.
Solana is well aware that the US is skeptical of Europe's
commitment to reaching its goals. "Certainly if
the European countries do not significantly improve
their power projection and defense capabilities, they
will not reach the capability to adequately conduct
EU-led operations, or NATO operations for that matter," he
said. "No one denies that European forces that
in the past focused on homeland defense will have to
restructure to be able to deploy, much like US forces
that have never had to worry about homeland defense
have always been deployable. But I'm very hopeful they
will improve those capabilities. The commitment of
the European leaders is clear that this transformation
must be made. It won't happen in the next 24 hours,
but it will happen."
Solana pleads for the US, until then, to have patience. "We're
only months from the Helsinki summit, so of course
all the formalities have not yet been worked out," said
Solana, stressing that the target date for creation
of Europe's rapid-reaction corps is 2003. The EU is
committed to finding ways to include the considerations
of non-EU allies in future decisions, he said, and
is developing a formal mechanism for bilateral EU-NATO
relations.
"And if anyone suggests that some conflict over
trade or bananas will be allowed to undermine the trans-Atlantic
alliance and the common values and fundamental security
partnership that we share, they have a very narrow
view of what the Alliance is all about," Solana
added. "As for the European Union itself, which
is something absolutely new and unprecedented in history,
I think it will prove a necessary element of stability
if we want a globalized world that is ruled by law
and not the law of the jungle."
In the meantime, US officials in Brussels already
have seen at least one positive result of Europe's
quest for a foreign policy and defense identity all
its own. In the past, much to the chagrin of the US
diplomatic corps, the European Union offices would
simply close up during the holidays without even a
skeleton staff. When a fairly urgent dispatch arrived
on the desk of an official at the US Embassy last Christmas,
however, he decided on a lark to dial 285-5000 to pass
it along to the Europeans. To his ever-lasting surprise
and delight, someone actually answered the phone.
James Kitfield is the defense correspondent for National
Journal in Washington, D.C. His most recent article for
Air Force Magazine, "The
Long Deployment," appeared in the July 2000
issue.