On March 24, NATO launched Operation Allied Force, an air
operation directed against Serbia and its leader, Slobodan
Milosevic. The conflict began when Milosevic refused to accept
a diplomatic settlement to the Kosovo crisis that involved
withdrawing Serbian troops from Kosovo, accepting a force of
international peacekeepers, and agreeing to a plan for Kosovo
autonomy.
When the first bombs fell, it appeared that NATO was attacking
Serbia’s key centers of gravity. But that turned out not to be
the case. In fact, an official military spokesman said allied
forces were conducting an operation “using the minimum force
necessary to accomplish military objectives.” And one European
diplomat went so far as to say, "This is not a war. It's
a limited, precise, use of force to paralyze a repressive machine."
The Air Force Association believes that the U.S. and allied
forces have been doing a superb job, but that the political and
military strategy has been flawed from the start. The military
objectives were too limited, and the level of force applied was
artificially constrained.
Political considerations were behind NATO officials publicly
announcing that there would be no ground troops deployed, publicly
announcing a “phased” approach to targeting, and publicly announcing
when one targeting phase ended and another began, providing advance
warning to Serbian leaders in Belgrade of allied military operations.
War is serious business. It is not antiseptic, it is not risk-free,
and it is not about sending signals. What we have seen in the
first two weeks of the conflict in this restrained air operation
is classic escalation theory being played out. NATO has been
trying to send Milosevic signals by ratcheting up the level of
force until he meets the terms of proposed diplomatic agreements.
So far, Milosevic has chosen to ignore the signals.
Unfortunately, Milosevic’s intransigence has led many to call
the use of airpower ineffective. The truth is that airpower has
been applied in a way that has limited its effects. To have taken
full advantage of aerospace power, there should have been many
more sorties on the first night of the attack, and among the
targets should have been key command centers, from the Ministry
of Defense to Milosevic’s command posts to the TV and radio
stations. Serb forces fielded in Kosovo also should have been
attacked, despite the fact that NATO might have taken some losses.
And a much higher level of sorties should have been maintained.
Such actions would have thrown the entire Serbian command
structure and forces in the field off balance. One of the key
lessons of the Gulf War was the idea of using parallel warfare —
attacking a full range of targets at the strategic, operational,
and tactical centers of gravity — to achieve specific ends, or
effects.
Another lesson of the Gulf War was to let the military
leaders make military decisions. In Vietnam, the limits of land
power can be traced to the micromanagement of the war by
political operatives in the basement of the White House and in
the Pentagon.
In the case of Kosovo, political leaders in the White House
and in NATO have been micromanaging target selection, the level
of effort, and they have repeatedly ignored military advice.
The bottom line: NATO military leaders have not been allowed to
wage war. It appears that both the negative lessons of Vietnam
and the positive lessons of the Gulf War have been ignored.
April 12, 1999