2024 Air, Space & Cyber—CMSAF: Understanding Infinite Game Threat

The keynote address, “Understanding the Threat in an Infinite Game,” was delivered by Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force David A. Flosi at AFA’s 2024 Air, Space & Cyber Conference. The keynote, held on September 16, can be viewed in the video below:

Speaker (via video):

We optimized for the unipolar moment using the flexibility of air power. We optimized for countering violent extremism, supporting the joint force through on-demand power projection. We now find ourselves in an era of great power competition. The call to change is now.

All right, good afternoon, AFA. China. China. China. That seems to work, so I figured I’d go with it. Hey, what a great first day it’s been. Mr. Secretary, Madam Undersecretary, General Allvin. General Saltzman, General Slife, General Guetlein, my friend B-9, and most importantly, my fellow airmen and guardians, I’m excited to be here. So speaking of you just heard, this is my first AFA as a Chief Master sergeant of the Air Force. It’s been quite a journey getting here. I’ve been fortunate to serve and travel all over the world, from New Mexico to Saudi, Arabia, Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. I’ve learned and served with some amazing leaders who have shaped who I am today. None of them, however, told me I’d have to stand in front of thousands of people and deliver a speech. Some of those same people encouraged me to pursue this opportunity to serve. Well, bless their hearts.

Seriously, this is a treat. It’s an honor, really. So let’s get on with it. As a video mentioned, this is a time of change. Now it’s not lost on me, this room is multi-generational. About 20% of our active duty workforce was born after 9/11. For you, COVID may be the world changing event you most remember. Many more of us experienced the shock and surprise of nine 11, a tragic event we commemorated just last week. Perhaps the smallest crowd, mostly these distinguished folks here in the front couple rows experienced the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War. Each event drove change. Well, as you’ve heard already today, we find ourselves at a crossroads again. Fellow airmen, if you’ve ever found yourself asking the question, why is the Air Force making all of these changes? Or maybe you’re thinking, here we go again.

Well, listen up because what I’m about to tell you is sourced. It’s unclassified, but taken in its entirety, it’s quite unsettling. I’m going to ask for your attention here for the next 20 minutes or so. My hope is that after today, you’ll gain a greater understanding of the threats, which informs why we are changing and what our great airmen are doing to ensure we are mission-ready. As you’ve heard from Secretary Kendall, General Allvin and others, we are facing threats to our interests all over the world on a daily basis. We face challenges in every domain. This is the most complex global strategic environment we’ve confronted in 30 years, maybe even since the end of World War II. While we’ve already heard quite a bit about it today, I’d like to chat with you. I’d like to chat about this strategic environment as well.

So let’s take a look around the globe. We’ll start with Africa. In Africa, recent military coups in Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have caused regional instability and facilitated Russian efforts to expand their influence on the continent. Violent extremist organizations are exploiting the situation to launch attacks against civilian and government targets alike. In Europe, the Russian Federation’s illegal invasion of Ukraine continues. Russian military failures on the battlefield have been followed with repeated threats to use nuclear weapons as it fails to achieve its goals. In spite of its battlefield failures, Russian leaders continue to use information operations to shape perceptions around the world. It has 80 documented disinformation campaigns targeting 22 countries in Africa alone, and has again been accused of actively interfering in US elections. These campaigns spread pro-Russia, anti-US narratives in foreign countries and also compete for the thoughts, opinions, and even allegiances of our airmen here at home.

In the Middle East, Houthi rebels continue to harass vessels in the Red Sea, recently striking a Greek-flagged oil tanker, causing an environmental disaster. Armed with Iranian-supplied weapons, they remain a threat to our partners throughout the region and to the global supply chain. The war between Israel and Hamas continues as Iran unceasingly threatens a dangerous escalation of the conflict. Iranian leaders are using militia groups to carry out attacks against US targets in Iraq Jordan and across the Middle East. Altogether, they’re providing weapons, training and financial support to more than 20 maligned groups across the region. In Asia, North Korea continues developing and testing weapons capable of striking not just South Korea, but Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and even the continental United States. They’re also supplying Russia with weapons and ammunition to perpetuate the war against Ukraine while partnering with Iran to supply arms to groups like Hamas.

Any of these situations could explode into a broader conflict at any time. A decade ago, each would’ve been a focus for global attention. Today, they are all vying for our time and resources, so it’s pretty complex out there. And I haven’t even got today 800 pound elephant in the room. The people’s Republic of China. The PRC is a systemic threat to the United States on our global network of allies and partners. Okay, a quick primer. I want to be sure we’re all level set on a couple of terms related to the Chinese government and its military. Forgive me, for some of you this might be a little basic, but it’s critical each and every Airman understands our threat and why we care about it. The people’s Republic of China, the PRC for short, is the government of China established in 1949 and dominated by a single party political system. The Chinese Communist Party.

The People’s Liberation Army, the PLA for short is the armed wing of the Chinese Communist Party. While we are sworn to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States, the PLA is sworn to protect the Chinese Communist Party. Not the Chinese people, not the country. I can’t overstate how different this to our way of life. Leaders, make sure your airmen understand this. Okay, back to the threat. The PRC is aggressively challenging international law and norms across the Indo-Pacific and around the world. As it seeks to dominate Asia, the PLA has begun intruding further into Japanese territorial waters and airspace in an attempt to intimidate Japan and test the nation’s resolve.

PRC leaders are also relentlessly working to coerce the Philippines to abandon their rightful territorial claims as they seek control of the entire South China Sea. The PRC has been interfering in Filipino attempts to resupply their personnel at the Second Thomas Shoal, even ramming Filipino vessels. And now they’re also upping the pressure at the Sabina Shoal. They are constantly executing military exercises, cyber attacks, and diplomatic pressure to undermine Taiwanese democracy and force unification against the will of the Taiwanese people.

Okay. You may also be asking yourself, why does all of this matter? Well, aside from some fundamental principles like freedom, liberty, and justice, money talks. And big money talks big. Right now, China and America each account for about 20% of the global economy. China’s goal is to dominate the South China Sea, the countries around its periphery, and ultimately much of Asia. This would give a China major influence and effect it control of more than 50% of the world economy. This would also help the PRC to project more naval and air power into the Pacific and would give China control of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. Taiwan produces over 60% of semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced semiconductors in the world. From the phone in your pocket, or maybe in your hand, to the smart watch on your wrist to the appliances in your home, they all have semiconductors inside, most likely produced in Taiwan.

This means more PRC money for weapons and aircraft, more PRC influence over other countries and even more PRC power to undermine American strengths and interests. In this complex environment, our allies across the Indo-Pacific and around the world are watching. Our relationships across the Indo-Pacific demonstrate our commitment to protecting democracy, freedom, and human rights. This is a powerful deterrent, but if we don’t present an agile, competent and capable air force, clearly capable of victory, our deterrent will be severely weakened. If the previous explanations aren’t enough, let me provide some examples of how this affects us right here at home. Chinese-linked companies have been buying up property near more than a dozen military bases in the United States for years. This includes land near bases that are home to a significant percentage of our nuclear arsenal. For decades, the PRC has carried out a relentless campaign of economic and intellectual property theft on a staggering scale.

And when I say staggering, take note of the middle picture there. Can you spot the difference? Well, from this view, it might be tough, but I can assure you one of those is that American F-35. The other one, built later, belongs to the adversary. Additionally, this theft has driven rapid Chinese economic growth at the expense of US businesses and has funded the PRC’s military modernization and expansion efforts, including their nuclear arsenal. They’ve launched their third aircraft carrier and they currently exceeded our US shipbuilding capacity. Would double our capacity alarm you? 20 times? 100:1? 230:1. 230 times more shipbuilding capacity than us in a vast theater, nearly all of it in the maritime domain, this should make you a little uncomfortable and it is, but one example. The people’s Republic of China doesn’t just rely on theft to feed their military expansion.

We as American consumers are unwittingly helping. We’re purchasing Chinese products at a rapid rate through online sites and brick and mortar stores too numerous to name. But trust me, they’re familiar to you. Even the big ones like Amazon and Walmart. The PRC has spent years hacking into US computer systems, not just to steal intellectual property, but also to compromise our information systems across a variety of fields. This includes telecommunications, banking, electricity, water, and more. As FBI Director Christopher Reyes said, the PRC has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try and induce panic and break America’s will to resist. The PRC wants to be able to turn off your cell phone, turn off your ATM card, turn off your lights, and turn off your water to intimidate you so you’ll be too afraid to fight.

They’re threatened by ideas like democracy and due process of law. They fear our individual rights like freedom of speech, freedom of assembly and protection from unreasonable search and seizure. airmen, to be clear, the PRC’s goal is to replace the US-led rule-based world order with one lead and dictated by the Chinese Communist Party. Certainly to do so, they would willingly sacrifice Chinese lives to strengthen their grip on power. But sparking a hot war between the US and the PRC would be disastrous for both sides. A far better and less costly option for the United States is to present the PRC with a credible deterrent bolstered by our capabilities and global alliances. We must convince them today is not the day to start a conflict, tomorrow is not the day to start a conflict, and to continue to remind them every day is not the day to start a conflict with the US and our allies.

While re-reading Simon Sinek’s book, The Infinite Game, I was struck by the similarities between an infinite game and the great power competition we are engaged in with the PRC. Finite games have set players agreed upon rules and objectives like football. I’m sure we all watched the most dominant football team on the planet, the back-to-back world champion and currently undefeated Kansas City Chiefs win again yesterday, yeah? I’m proud of those of you that clapped. The players on each of those teams wore uniforms. They accepted the calls by the referees and when the game clock ran down to zero, there was a winner and a loser. For infinite games on the other hand, it might not be clear who all the players are. Infinite games might have conventions or laws governing them, but the players can and do choose to break those conventions at any time. And there is no finish line, no game clock.

So there is no such thing as winning in an infinite game. The primary objective is to stay in the game, to keep competing, to maintain advantage. The book highlights the difference between finite and infinite games with the example of a meeting between former SecDef McNamara and one of his North Vietnamese counterparts years after the end of the Vietnam War. While the secretary viewed the Vietnam War through a finite perspective with specific military and political objectives, the North Vietnamese were determined to keep fighting regardless of the intensity and frequency of U.S attacks.

No matter what, they were committed to staying in the game and outlasting the United States. In an infinite game like our competition With the PRC, again airmen, our best move is to present a credible deterrent to demonstrate we are committed to defending our allies and staying in the game. To be credible, we must be able to deter PLA aggression. We must actively support our allies across the Indo-Pacific, and we must push back on PRC efforts to spread their malign influence. The department is already optimizing to prepare for high-end conflicts if deterrence fails, and to sustain long-term strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China, while also contending with those other threats I mentioned earlier. You’ve heard this already today, but it’s worth repeating: the key to all of our transformative efforts is our airmen.

Speaker (via video):

Our competitive advantage is our airmen. Our focus is making sure our airmen are prepared to deliver unstoppable airpower, to detect, deter, confront, and if called upon combat and defeat potential adversaries.

Speaker (via video):

We must cultivate individuals with the expertise and versatile skill sets required to win in various operational scenarios.

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This requires optimizing the force we have by centralizing force development, reinvigorating our warrior ethos and establishing effective paths for technical areas critical to creating a competitive advantage.

Speaker (via video):

We are mission-ready airmen, equipped with institutional and operational competencies.

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Throughout its history, the United States Air Force has thrived by embracing, adaptability and change.

Speaker (via video):

As we confront this new strategic environment, we must be true to our legacy and rise to meet this challenge.

Speaker (via video):

We are the world’s greatest air force, powered by airmen.

Yeah. airmen, you have always been our key competitive advantage. We only need to give you the tools to thrive in an era of great power competition to empower you to compete and succeed in an infinite game. Before I continue, I’d like to take a second to celebrate one group of airmen who continue to bring in the best America has to offer to maintain our competitive advantage. A group of airmen who work independently all over the United States and many places around the globe. airmen who have embraced what it means to serve, to serve this great nation as an airman in the professional arms. Our recruiters. If you’re a recruiter in the crowd, please stand up.

Audience: [inaudible 00:20:18].

Awesome. Thank you. We’ve put you to work the last couple of years and in a tough recruiting environment. We owe each of you a debt of gratitude. So ladies and gentlemen, as you’re walking around the convention this week, find a recruiter and thank them. Let’s give them one more round of applause. All right. As I was saying, airmen are our greatest strength. Our airmen understand our just cause is to a world where territorial integrity and self-determination are assured. A world where freedom of navigation is guaranteed and a world where authoritarian regimes can’t rely on the PRC to help them spy on their own populations, or to supply them with weapons to prosecute illegal invasions. Leaders, our airmen must know how we contribute to advancing this vision. We all have a part to play whether finance, security forces, medical intel, maintenance, logistics, or any other specialty code.

We only succeed when everyone works to advance the cause, together as airmen first, mission over functions, as one air force. Our development of concepts like Agile Combat Employment and Mission Ready airmen are shaped by our study of the PRC and how they’re preparing to fight against us. Well, we’ve been paying attention to your efforts and I’m happy to tell you what our airmen have been up to earlier this year. The secretary, the chief and I, we traveled to Hawaii, Guam, Saipan, Tinian amongst other locations, and it was an incredible opportunity to meet the airmen from the 513th Expeditionary Red Horse Squadron. These airmen are driving change, operating outside their specialties to restore World War II-era runways so they can be used to launch and recover modern aircraft. If you ever thought Agile Combat Employment was just some buzzword, think again. Our airmen are overcoming challenges and bringing resources to bear to make ACE a reality and to complicate life for adversaries across the Indo-Pacific theater.

A little further west, airmen in the first Special Operations Aircraft Maintenance Squadron have developed twelve-member teams capable of forward deploying with multiple aircraft and generating operations unsupported for days on end, not just launching and recovering aircraft, but supplying their own food, water, ammo, security, and communications. They’re also qualified in multiple specialties, enabling smaller, more capable teams to drive ACE operations. This is not an idea on a whiteboard. It’s happening now. In the top right picture up there is Senior Airman Marlene Guerrero. She’s a fuels technician, cross-utilization trained in hydraulic tasks and as a assistant dedicated crew chief. In the picture, she’s being recognized by SOACOM leadership because she’s been kicking as a mission-ready airman. Let’s give her some applause.

Shortly after this photo was taken, she responded on a maintenance repair team to fix a forward aircraft with a hydraulic problem. This is what right looks like. Back in April, Strike Eagles from the 494th Fighter Squadron and the 335th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron earned some new paint markings on their jets by shooting down, well, as you can see, a crap-ton of adversary UAVs. On just the 13th and 14th of April alone, they shot down over 80 attack UAVs and six ballistic missiles launched at Israel from Iran and Yemen. These sorties were enabled by mission-ready airmen taking disciplined risk in alarm-red conditions to combat turn jets, our airmen and our allies desperately needed in the air. While our teams in CENTCOM were executing, our teams back home were sharpening their readiness capability. I want to give a shout-out to the team from Air Force Global Strike Command, who won the 10th Readiness Challenge competition on April 26th.

They were one of 12 teams from across the Air Force, the Joint Force, and even our coalition partners. These airmen learned new skills and were tested in over 25 engineering specialties, including runway repair, firefighting, services, EOD power and water systems, just to name a few. These airmen are critical to supporting ACE operations downrange and these types of competitions show us a small glimpse of the potential our airmen possessed. And our airmen haven’t just been busy building their own skills, they’ve also been working hard to bring us new capabilities. Even when it comes to technology, our airmen are our key competitive advantage. Anybody here heard of QUICKSINK?

The Air Force Research Lab has helped develop the capability to use guided bombs to strike both stationary and moving naval targets so we can use inexpensive weapons to take out very expensive naval ships. We recently demonstrated this weapon by dropping a QUICKSINK from a B-2 during this year’s Rim of the Pacific exercise in Hawaii. I was told we didn’t have time to watch the entire video, but as you can see, when you break a ship in half on contact, it doesn’t make for a long video. Another cool weapon, the Air Force’s fielding to deter the PRC is Rapid Dragon. It’s basically a pallet of cruise missiles you can push out the back of a C-17 or a C-130. It dramatically expands the fleet of aircraft we and our allies can use to launch long range cruise missiles to apply pressure to the PRC and other adversaries.

As we continue to develop and field new weapon systems, it is essential our airmen have the training and resources they need to operate them effectively. We are empowering airmen through mission command, and we need leaders of courage. I won’t mislead you. Achieving mission success in austere locations with limited communications and supplies is going to be difficult. It will require accepting more risk. We must ensure airmen have the training necessary to balance risk with mission objectives, and to articulate and assess risk as they make decisions in stressful dynamic environments. We will be taking your NAF senior enlisted leaders to the field next month to get them ready to lead in Garrison to prepare for contested environments. We have always had courageous leaders, names like Billy Mitchell, Charles McGee, and Jimmy Doolittle, airmen who are willing to take calculated risks and lead with a focus on mission success. As the chairman and the chief have said on this very stage, we’ve been here before.

To optimize, we must ensure we empower our leaders across the department to identify ways to better compete with the PRC, to help us get stronger and more lethal. As we start executing hub and spoke operations, we need trusting teams who are able to communicate openly as they deal with the challenges that will surely arise. Training as units of action will give our airmen time to build trust as they exercise, qualify and certify together in Garrison before going downrange. This is why we’re increasing the size and complexity of our exercises. The chief mentioned it earlier, we used to hold massive exercises in Germany called REFORGER Return of Forces to Germany. These exercises simulated defending the full gap from a Soviet invasion, with all of our resources available and all of our allies participating. Next summer, we’ll be holding our first iteration of a large-scale theater level exercise in the Indo-Pacific.

It will incorporate Talisman Saber with our international partners. It will include Mighty Guardian, our Air Mobility, Joint Force, Maneuver Center of Excellence, Bamboo Eagle and other elements to see what it looks like to bring all of our units of action together against a peer competitor. This exercise will accurately assess our ability to fight alongside our allies in a contested environment, and it will identify gaps so we can close them quickly. This is the next necessary evolution and theater level operations. Everything we are doing as we re-optimize for great power competition is driven by the need to be more competitive, more agile, and more lethal. The key to all of this rests on the backbone of our workforce, our non-commissioned officers. It rests with our sergeants. Our nation is blessed to have the most competent, committed, educated, and capable, all-volunteer enlisted force on planet earth.

All right. We’ve talked about a lot today. We’ve talked about the complex global strategic environment. We talked about the threat by the PRC, and the incredible work our airmen are doing to counter them. If you remember just two things from my presentation today, leaders, leave here with these: first, the threat is real, the threat is present and the threat is here now. Second, your duty, your obligation, your main thing is to set conditions for your airmen to be mission-ready to be successful.

You know the Latin root for the word sergeant means to serve? So I just pause every now and then. You only get one chance to be an Airman, and so we need to do it right. I just got to stop every now and then and make sure I remember that. Your job is to set conditions for your airmen to be successful. That’s it. That’s the main thing, right? And so as long as we’re doing that, we’re going to be fine.

The threat is real. Aim high, airmen. Aim high. Thank you.

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This transcript was auto-generated, and may not be 100 percent accurate. The source audio and video can be accessed above.