How Big Should the Air Force Be? Mitchell Institute Wargame Aims to Find Out

Arlington, Va.,  June 22, 2026 — The Air & Space Forces Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies concluded a three-day wargame exploring the size and shape of the future force June 18, 2026. The wargame brought together 80 experts across the U.S. and foreign air forces, industry, and academia and featured a multi-theater conflict scenario.  

Lt. Gen. Christopher J. Niemi, U.S. Air Force’s Chief Modernization Officer, as Deputy Chief of Staff of the Strategy, Design and Requirements (A5/7) kicked off the event with an off-the-record keynote at AFA’s National Headquarters in Washington, D.C. The wargame scenario consisted of potential conflicts in Europe and the Pacific and the need to concurrently defend the U.S. homeland and maintain nuclear deterrence. 

Findings will inform a future Mitchell Institute report examining the risks the size of today’s force and its implications for deterring future conflict, as well as assessing and prioritizing development of future combat capabilities. 

“The Mitchell Institute’s recent airpower wargame brought together a rich combination of experts from the Air Force, eight other countries, industry, and academia to help define the Air Force the nation will need for future high-intensity conflict,” said Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, USAF (Ret.), dean of the Mitchell Institute. “These experts wrestled with real-world capacity constraints in aircraft and munitions to assess possible solutions in a multi-theater contingency. The game generated practical insights for Air Force leaders and policymakers charged with rebuilding American airpower for the challenges ahead.” 

The June wargame builds on Mitchell’s previous wargames and research. The Mitchell Institute’s April 26 report, Rebuilding American Airpower: Balancing the Air Force’s Combat Forces for Peer Conflict, was the result of an earlier wargame.

To explore the full range of Mitchell Institute publications, including reports, policy papers, and issue briefs, visit the Mitchell Institute’s webpage. 

About AFA

The Air & Space Forces Association is an independent, non-profit 501(c)3 association dedicated to advocating for the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Space Force, Airmen, Guardians, and their Families. Founded in 1946, AFA is the single largest entity of its kind focused on air and space power. With more than 350,000 members and 200 chapters spread around the world, our mission is to promote dominant U.S. Air Force and Space Force as the foundation of a strong National Defense; to honor and support Airmen, Guardians, and their Families; and to remember and respect the enduring heritage of the Air Force and Space Force. 

About the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies The Mitchell Institute is the only think tank focused on airpower and spacepower, located in the nation’s capital. The Mitchell Institute is an independent, nonpartisan research organization established to provide innovative, insightful, fact-based research, analysis, and policy options to inform decision-makers, experts, and the public on national security issues in the air and space domains. Mitchell provides deep analysis of important issues, strategy, and technology through research reports and policy papers on a wide range of subjects. Mitchell conducts cutting edge workshops and wargames and facilitates topical expert conversations through a variety of community activities and engagement opportunities, from symposia to round tables. Mitchell also engages top air and space leaders with its internationally acclaimed webinar series and influential weekly podcast series that both cover a broad range of timely air and space issues.